According to market expert Sunil Subramaniam, the broader market setup still favours accumulation, though with a calibrated approach rather than aggressive positioning. As reported by The Economic Times, Subramaniam maintains that investors should "keep buying, but in small amounts. Stagger them. Do not go in today." He noted that institutional positioning is gradually shifting, indicating that the worst may be behind for markets unless there is a major escalation. "If you see FIIs last week, they started buying gradually by the end of the week. So clearly, they are also taking a position that the worst is behind us. DIIs on the contrary have been booking profits and pretty heavy profits because they are preparing for the earning season."
On the latest results from ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, Subramaniam highlighted key sectoral signals while avoiding stock-specific commentary. According to the report, "Yes, they beat guidance and they were good but also you got to look at the fact that there is definitely pressure on deposits, that is clearly seen because while HDFC had a good deposit growth, it has come at a higher cost and the NIMs are slightly under pressure." He emphasized that "the good news from both the results are the fact that credit is picking up especially in SME and the business banking side." On asset quality, he noted continued strength: "Another good news from both the results is the NPA levels are fairly quite low levels and indicates that corporate health is good."
With markets already rallying sharply from recent lows, Subramaniam believes the next directional move will depend heavily on corporate earnings and guidance. As reported by The Economic Times, he explained that "definitely market will, especially DIIs will look at the earnings before taking a call on which sectors to back." He emphasized that "actual QoQ earnings drop or even YoY drop market would have factored in. But the guidance for the future quarters and for the year is important." He added that "how are they looking at the further continuing impact of war? Are they going to face margin pressure and try to boost sales or are they going to protect margins and not worry about sales. That knowledge is important."
On the FMCG sector, Subramaniam pointed to improving rural demand but cautioned on input cost pressures. According to the report, "There was a strong rural pickup in terms of rural demand in credit, which augurs well for the FMCG." However, he highlighted inflationary risks: "Food prices are generally going to trend up plus the effect of the war in terms of gas for Urea. So, when farmers' incomes goes up, that is actually a positive for rural demand." On defence stocks, he acknowledged strong retail-led momentum but warned of volatility ahead: "When the earning season pans out, you will see some profit booking and defence would be an ideal place where DIIs would book profits to generate cash."
Subramaniam noted that recent retail-led optimism had driven the last leg of the rally, but sustainability will depend on earnings and global developments. As reported by The Economic Times, he added that "downside risk appears limited unless there is a major geopolitical shock." He concluded that "this is a time when you can be reasonably confident that the market is close to a bottom unless there is a very dramatic military development in the war." The message remains consistent: "staggered buying, selective positioning, and close tracking of earnings rather than chasing index momentum."
