India is experiencing its driest June in over 15 years, with the southwest monsoon significantly behind schedule and rainfall continuing to lag long-term averages. According to the latest IMD data, India received 85.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 28, well below the Long Period Average (LPA) of 149.8 mm, resulting in a cumulative rainfall deficit of more than 43%. This places June 2026 among the driest corresponding months since records began in 1901, with total rainfall expected to be around 95 mm - the driest June since 2009 when the country recorded only 85.7 mm of rainfall. The weather office had earlier forecast below-normal rainfall for June, projecting precipitation at less than 92% of the LPA.
The weak monsoon progression has affected almost every region of the country, with Central India recording the worst deficit at 56%, followed by East and Northeast India at 43%, Northwest India at 29%, South Peninsula at 31%, and Central India at 56%. Several states have recorded particularly sharp rainfall deficits, including Chhattisgarh at 67%, Jharkhand at 67%, Maharashtra at 58%, Uttar Pradesh at 56%, and Odisha at 54%. Only a handful of states, including Rajasthan, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, have so far received rainfall within the normal range. As per the IMD's latest weather bulletin, atmospheric conditions remain favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into additional parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next two to three days.
As reported by Macquarie, Britannia and Dabur are consumer companies that could face greater pressure due to their relatively high dependence on rural markets if monsoon conditions deteriorate further. The brokerage noted that history suggests weak rainfall during the latter half of the monsoon season can have a much sharper impact on agricultural production and rural incomes than a weak start alone. Macquarie pointed to 2019 as an example, when June rainfall was just 67% of the Long Period Average (LPA) before recovering sharply to 105% in July, 115% in August and 152% in September, limiting the impact on farm output and rural demand.
The rainfall deficit has begun to affect the ongoing kharif cropping season, with Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan noting that 315 of India's 724 districts may receive deficient rainfall this season. He added that the Centre has identified 111 districts as particularly vulnerable because irrigation coverage there is below 25%. Sowing activity resumed only after the monsoon regained momentum around June 20, following an interruption of nearly two weeks. Despite the delayed start, kharif sowing has covered around 10% of the seasonal area so far, with government data showing the total acreage under crops including rice, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton stood at 11.79 million hectares as of June 22, remaining higher than the corresponding period last year. Agriculture experts warn that delayed monsoon progression across western and central India is likely to postpone sowing and transplanting of key kharif crops, including paddy, cotton and pulses, as well as horticultural crops such as onion and tomato.
The IMD has confirmed that El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the remainder of the southwest monsoon season. Weather scientists expect some short-term improvement, with Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, noting that favourable large-scale weather conditions are likely to help the southwest monsoon strengthen until around July 5, allowing it to advance further into central India. However, he cautioned that forecast models indicate another weakening phase around the middle of July, increasing the possibility that the second half of the month could be drier than the first across much of the country. July and August together account for nearly 60% of the season's monsoon rainfall and are considered critical for kharif and horticultural crops. The IMD had last month revised its forecast for the overall June-September southwest monsoon to 90% of the LPA, signalling the possibility of the weakest monsoon season since 2015.
