JM Financial has retained its 'Buy' rating on JSW Infrastructure while trimming the price target to ₹365 from ₹400 earlier. According to reports from CNBC TV18 and The Hindu BusinessLine, the brokerage's decision reflects ongoing market concerns linked to the West Asia crisis, which has impacted the company's operations. The revision comes despite JM Financial's continued positive outlook on the infrastructure company's long-term prospects, with the current market price standing at ₹234.25. The target price revision also factors in rising G-Sec yields as a key consideration.
The ongoing West Asia conflict has impacted JSW Infrastructure's Fujairah liquid storage facility, which was hit by drone attacks, leading to partial capacity going offline. As reported by CNBC TV18 and The Hindu BusinessLine, the brokerage also flagged potential disruptions in steel-grade limestone imports from the region. These operational disruptions have contributed to the near-term headwinds facing the company's operations, though the company has announced potential plans for a primary equity raise to meet minimum public shareholding norms.
Despite the challenges, JM Financial expects JSW Infrastructure to largely meet its FY26 EBITDA guidance of ₹2,600 crore, supported by strong performance in group-linked cargo and continued scale-up in its logistics business. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the brokerage forecasts Q4FY26 EBITDA at ₹743 crore despite some impact from the West Asia crisis. The company's diversified revenue streams are expected to provide resilience against geopolitical disruptions, with strong group cargo performance led by rising steel prices and production, improved coastal coal movement outlook, and logistical ramp-up through Navkar operations.
JM Financial has trimmed its FY27–FY28 estimates to factor in the impact of the geopolitical situation, as reported by CNBC TV18. On the balance sheet front, a potential primary equity raise to meet minimum public shareholding norms could lead to a near-term supply overhang over the next one to two quarters. However, the brokerage expects leverage to remain significantly below 2.5x (net debt/EBITDA) over FY26–FY28, providing support for the company's growth capex plans. Looking ahead, the brokerage expects strong growth till FY30E with EBITDA exceeding ₹8,000 crore, supported by recently-commissioned capacities, logistics ramp-up, and further port capacities at Keni targeting Vijayanagar Steel Plant cargo and Oman operations.
Overall, JM Financial continues to view the stock as a combination of growth and value despite near-term headwinds. According to the brokerage's assessment reported by CNBC TV18 and The Hindu BusinessLine, the company's diversified business model and strong operational performance in key segments are expected to support its financial targets despite the current geopolitical challenges affecting its Middle East operations. The DCF-based target price revision to ₹365 from ₹400 reflects the impact of rising G-Sec yields while maintaining the positive investment thesis.
