TCI Express has demonstrated a significant operational turnaround with volume growth of 5.4% YoY to 255,000 MT in Q3 FY26, marking the first expansion in eight quarters. This volume rebound, coupled with revenue increase of 5.9% YoY to ₹3,141 million, suggests growing operational activity despite EBITDA margins at 10.3% falling short of analyst estimates of 11.3%. The company's stock responded positively to these results, closing up 6.22% to ₹543.10 on February 4, 2026, indicating strong market optimism around the recovery signals. The volume growth was driven by revival in surface express segment, strong customer additions, higher wallet share from existing enterprise accounts, and improved freight movement led by domestic consumption and festive demand.
Brokerage houses continue to express optimism regarding TCI Express's future prospects with Prabhudas Lilladher maintaining a 'BUY' rating and target price of ₹694, projecting 6% CAGR in volumes and 7% CAGR in sales from FY25 to FY28E, with PAT expected to grow at 18% CAGR. Jefferies recently upgraded its price target to ₹805 from ₹745, citing potential 50% upside and the company's guidance of around 15% volume growth for FY27E. The average analyst target price across four brokers stands at ₹756.25, with the company's P/E ratio reaching a five-year low of 24.0x in March 2025 and current P/E below industry average, suggesting potential for re-rating. The stock has a 52-week trading range between ₹478 and ₹870 with market capitalization of approximately ₹2,063 crore.
TCI Express reported healthy earnings growth for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. As reported by NDTV Profit, consolidated revenue rose 6% to ₹314 crore compared to ₹296 crore in the previous year. Profit jumped nearly 15% to ₹22 crore versus ₹19.2 crore, while EBITDA increased 12.2% to ₹32.4 crore from ₹28.9 crore. The margin improved to 10.3% from 9.8% in the corresponding quarter last year. The company reported capital expenditure of ₹450 million in the first nine months of FY26, primarily for branch expansion, sorting centers, and IT infrastructure upgrades. TCI Express maintains an asset-light model and is almost debt-free.
The resurgence in TCI Express's volumes is attributed to a multi-faceted demand recovery with the company's top 25 customers accounting for less than 15% of revenue, indicating a diversified client portfolio. Key drivers include revival of surface express segment, strong influx of new customers, and increased business from existing enterprise accounts. Improved freight movement, supported by robust domestic consumption and seasonal festive demand, contributed significantly. Incremental traction was observed across rail express, air express, C2C, and e-commerce services. Furthermore, growth in specialized sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, electric vehicles, solar, and electronics segments provided broad-based support for the volume uptick. The company's management expressed confidence in growth recovery with guidance of 15% volume growth for the next financial year, a sharp improvement compared to modest around 2% volume growth estimated this fiscal.
Prabhudas Lilladher maintains a 'BUY' rating with target price of ₹694 (19x FY28 EPS) based on early signs of demand-led recovery and improving business mix. The brokerage expects sales and PAT CAGR of 7% and 18% respectively over FY25–FY28E. Jefferies points to management commentary that lends visibility, with the leadership expressing confidence in growth recovery. The company's diversification strategy and network expansion are expected to drive sustained growth in the express logistics segment, supported by business diversification, network expansion, and steady gains in the express logistics segment. Despite significant underperformance over the past year, with the stock declining approximately 30.85% against the Sensex's gain, the current recovery signs may position TCI Express to capitalize on favorable sector tailwinds, including government initiatives like the National Logistics Policy and PM Gati Shakti, alongside substantial Union Budget 2026 allocation of ₹5.98 lakh crore to the transport sector.
