Jefferies has expanded its India Equity Strategy with 28 'Buy' ideas in its September 1 report, up from 24 in June, alongside eight 'Underperform' calls. According to the brokerage's latest strategy, each stock selection is tied to specific earnings triggers rather than broad market views. In banks, the focus centers on credit growth and profitability, while in power and industrials, it's the order book and capacity build-out. For autos, metals, and consumer names, Jefferies is looking for volume recovery, stronger realizations, or new businesses to translate into earnings.
The banking sector features prominently with ICICI Bank carrying a target price of ₹1,750 implying 20.7% upside. Jefferies expects 15% loan growth annually on a compounded basis between FY26-FY29, credit costs of 40-50 basis points, and 13% CAGR in core profit. Axis Bank has a target price of ₹1,700 with 32.5% upside, expecting loan growth to normalize from 19% to 15% in FY27. State Bank of India carries a target price of ₹1,320 with 24.5% upside, while Bajaj Finance has a target of ₹1,280 with 20.2% upside and forecasting 21% AUM CAGR through FY26-28.
SBI Life Insurance leads the insurance sector with a target price of ₹2,600 and 49.2% upside, holding 16% market share in retail weighted premiums. Jefferies expects APE growth to accelerate at 15% CAGR as the SBI channel recovers from a two-year low base. Star Health has a target price of ₹725 with 27.7% upside, expecting gross premiums to grow at 15% CAGR through FY29. In healthcare, Fortis Healthcare carries a target price of ₹1,125 with 23.9% upside, expecting about 400 new beds in FY27 and more than 1,700 beds over four to five years. Gland Pharma has a target price of ₹3,350 with 16% upside, with its Cenexi subsidiary reaching sustainable EBITDA breakeven.
Siemens Energy India stands out with a target price of ₹4,800 and 48.5% upside, expecting 43% EPS CAGR through FY28 driven by operating leverage and India's power-capex pipeline. Its June-quarter order book was up 16% year-on-year at ₹19,100 crore, equivalent to 2.5 times FY25 sales. JSW Energy has a target price of ₹720 with 36.4% upside, tied to renewable capacity execution. Emmvee Photovoltaic Power carries a target price of ₹440 with 36.8% upside, pointing to its order book and early positioning in TOPCon cells. Polycab India has a target price of ₹11,100 with 20.7% upside, expecting demand from power spending and renewables to support the cables and wires business.
Coforge has a target price of ₹2,040 with 2.6% upside, expecting organic revenue growth of about 15% CAGR through FY29. Bharti Airtel carries a target price of ₹2,400 with 31.1% upside, expecting tariff increases and subscriber premiumization to support growth. In consumer goods, Tata Consumer Products has a target price of ₹1,450 with 39.6% upside, expecting steady volume growth in core India portfolio. Eternal has a target price of ₹415 with 26.6% upside, with food delivery as the cash-generating base and Blinkit as the principal growth engine. Grasim Industries has a target price of ₹3,910 with 17.8% upside, reaching the number-three domestic position in paints by volume.
