The Indian stock market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with Sensex rising 298.54 points or 0.41% to 72,827.61 and Nifty 50 gaining 26.30 points or 0.12% to 22,742.50 as of 12:00 PM, as reported by Dalal Street Investment Journal. Broader markets moved into the red, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 trading lower by 0.72% and 0.83% respectively, indicating continued weakness beyond the benchmark indices. BSE, Max Healthcare Institute and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories were among the top losers in the Nifty 50 index. Among the sectors, Nifty Chemical, Nifty IT, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Oil and Gas outperformed, while Nifty Healthcare declined the most. The overall market breadth turned negative, with NSE seeing 2,186 advances and 888 declines, while 95 stocks remained unchanged, according to Dalal Street Investment Journal.
Market analysts have identified immediate support at 22,550-22,500 levels, followed by stronger support around 22,400-22,500, with Tuesday's low of 22,569.65 serving as an important near-term reference point. On the upside, 22,800-22,900 zone represents immediate resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle around 23,000-23,100. According to Dalal Street Investment Journal, India VIX declined 1.65% to settle at 13.41, indicating that implied market volatility remained relatively contained despite the weakness in benchmark indices. The Nifty 50 has recorded an eight-week losing streak, its longest since 2020, keeping market sentiment cautious. The breach of Sensex 73,300 and Nifty 23,000 levels is technically significant and could result in further volatility if the indices fail to reclaim these levels.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump denied he would be willing to ease sanctions on Iran while Qatar pushed for peace talks, according to Dalal Street Investment Journal. Brent crude was trading near USD 103 per barrel, while WTI crude was around USD 89.30 per barrel, as talks between the US and Iran stalled. Elevated crude prices remain a concern for import-dependent sectors such as aviation and paints because of higher input costs, while upstream oil producers can benefit from stronger realisations. As Abhishek Bhilwaria, Partner at BhilwariaFinserv, explained to NDTV, "Expensive oil can push up India's import bill and inflation while putting pressure on the rupee. It can also squeeze the margins of companies that depend heavily on fuel and transportation." Spot gold remained steady at around USD 4,211 per ounce, while silver was near USD 61.74 per ounce, as gold prices were on track for a monthly decline as expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the precious metal.
Foreign portfolio investors remained heavy sellers in Indian equities, selling shares worth ₹9,980.22 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors bought equities worth ₹6,952.71 crore, as reported by Dalal Street Investment Journal. Continued foreign selling remains one of the key factors weighing on domestic market sentiment, although DII buying is providing some support. The U.S. Treasury market remained a key pressure point, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.25-5.29%, which can weigh on equity valuations and emerging-market assets by increasing borrowing costs. The Dollar Index was around 101.41, supported by U.S. growth expectations and higher interest rates, with the dollar remaining close to this year's high against the euro and on track for its largest monthly gain against the common currency in 14 months.
Despite the technical oversold conditions, market experts note that at a fundamental level, markets have only gone from expensive to less expensive, and are only now sitting at just above the historical mean. According to market analysis, the Indian market to turn around and launch into a bull run will require many factors to align, not least of which is liquidity. Markets will track US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings data tonight, followed by China's manufacturing PMI, US and UK second-quarter GDP, crude inventories and remarks from Fed's Waller on Wednesday. Analysts see support for the Nifty at 22,550-22,500 and resistance at 22,800-22,900, with crude, the rupee, global yields and the US response on Hormuz remaining the key factors to watch. Progress in US–Iran talks and easing crude and yields could help the index stabilise, while another spike in either would keep sellers in control. Overseas markets provided mixed-to-positive cues, with Asian stocks gaining for the first time in three sessions as easing concerns over the oil market helped stabilise sentiment.
