ICICI Bank shares witnessed a volatile trading session on Monday, opening at ₹1,408.90 and touching an intraday high of ₹1,412.00 before correcting to trade at ₹1,386, down 0.8% with a market capitalisation of ₹9.95 lakh crore. The stock surged past the ₹1,400 mark in early trade before entering the red zone due to broad-based market selloffs. Despite the market decline, global brokerages remain bullish on the private sector lender, with multiple reports suggesting a buy-on-dips opportunity with potential upside of 36% ahead. The stock has gained 3.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Nifty 50, which has declined 11.5% over the same period. All three major lenders witnessed margin pressure during the quarter, with their Net Interest Margins contracting by 10 basis points to as much as 37 basis points. Axis Bank recorded the steepest margin contraction at 37 basis points, while ICICI Bank maintains a consensus buy rating with 53 analysts covering the stock and HDFC Bank has the highest upside potential with 47 analysts covering the stock.
ICICI Bank reported a 20.1% year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to ₹14,843 crore for the September quarter, beating the CNBC TV18 poll estimate of ₹14,280 crore. Net interest income (NII) grew 17.7% to ₹25,339 crore, exceeding the estimate of ₹24,811 crore. However, net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 4.18% from 4.36% in the preceding quarter and 4.30% a year earlier. Total advances grew 30% year-on-year to ₹18.32 lakh crore, while deposits increased 27.1% to ₹20.50 lakh crore. Excluding FCNR-B-related balances, loan and deposit growth stood at 24.1% and 17% respectively. Fresh slippages declined 4% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to ₹48.3 billion, demonstrating the bank's improving credit quality. Provisions dropped to ₹850.69 crore in Q2FY27 compared to ₹914.11 crore in the same quarter last year. Gross NPA stood at 1.20%, declining from 1.58% in Q2FY26 and 1.38% in Q1FY27.
PL Capital assigned the highest target price of ₹1,900, raising it from ₹850, with analysts expecting NIM improvement from Q4FY27 led by repo hike and liquidity utilization. Axis Securities maintained a BUY rating and raised target price to ₹1,865, citing the bank's consistent execution capability and superior asset quality performance. Emkay Global retained BUY with target price of ₹1,785, expecting FCNR(B)-induced credit growth of 30% to support earnings growth. Jefferies maintained Buy with target price of ₹1,750, raising estimates for FY27-29 by 5-6% and expecting 16% CAGR in core profits over FY26-29. JM Financial maintained BUY with target price of ₹1,710, valuing the bank at 2.4x FY28E core P/BV. Citi, Jefferies and Bernstein retained positive recommendations with targets of ₹1,770, ₹1,750 and ₹1,800 respectively. All 53 analysts covering ICICI Bank have a buy rating on the stock, with consensus estimates showing 27% upside potential.
The volatile trading came amid broader weakness in banking stocks and the equity market, with the Bank Nifty index down 0.4% and Sensex falling 331.45 points to 74,397.82 and Nifty declining 91.25 points to 23,054.90 as of 11:28 am. ICICI Bank's market capitalisation stood at approximately ₹9.9 lakh crore. The bank's performance was better than MOFSL's projected 19% sequential growth, which has driven some earnings upgrades. ICICI Bank is expected to maintain return on assets (ROA) in the 2.3-2.4% range, supported by industry-leading growth and the potential turn in the rate cycle that has already begun. Yes Bank shares also dropped over a per cent following its Q2 results, while Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bandhan Bank and IndusInd Bank shares fell nearly 1% each. Axis Securities noted that ICICI Bank continues to distinguish itself through consistent execution capability, underpinned by well-diversified growth, superior asset quality performance, and robust operating efficiency.
As reported by CNBC TV18, MOFSL expects HDFC Bank to deliver 15% earnings growth versus the close to 6-7% average growth seen over recent years. The brokerage maintains a buy rating on HDFC Bank, expecting improvement in operating performance from early FY28 to support the stock's performance. According to CNBC TV18, HDFC Bank is undergoing leadership transition, with the new team expected to focus on strategy and address operational gaps. HDFC Bank has the highest upside potential among the three major lenders, with 47 analysts covering the stock and consensus estimates implying an upside potential of 35%. Kotak Institutional Equities has a buy rating with a price target of ₹1,050, while JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have price targets of ₹970 and ₹861 respectively. While the bank reported a decline in net interest margins during the quarter, this trend was visible across the three large private sector banks.
