Despite Sobha shares declining 21% over three months, domestic brokerage house HDFC Securities maintains a buy rating with a target price of ₹1,930, implying an upside of over 66% from its October 9 closing price of ₹1,161.70. According to reports from LiveMint, the brokerage expects the real estate developer to clock sales of more than ₹10,000 crore in FY27, representing growth of around 70% year-on-year, supported by new launches across Bengaluru, the National Capital Region (NCR) and Pune. The stock has remained under pressure across most time frames, declining over 4% in the past week, 5.5% in one month, 21% in three months and 11% in six months. HDFC Securities stated: "Given the robust launch pipeline, strong BS, and stable CF, we maintain BUY with a TP of INR 1,930/sh."
Sobha recorded presales worth ₹2,210 crore in Q2FY27, up 16% year-on-year but down 40% quarter-on-quarter. As reported by LiveMint, sales area stood at 1.42 million square feet, up 2% year-on-year, while average selling prices rose 14% to ₹15,522 per square foot. The sequential decline followed record presales of ₹3,660 crore in Q1FY27, supported by large project launches. For the first half of FY27, presales reached an all-time high of ₹5,860 crore, up 47% year-on-year. HDFC Securities highlighted that the quarter reinforced demand resilience, brand-led pricing strength, and execution consistency that have underpinned the company's recent growth trajectory, setting a strong base heading into the rest of FY27.
Sobha launched two projects covering 1.03 million square feet in Calicut and Mysore during the first half of FY27. According to LiveMint, launches during the period reached 7.9 million square feet, with a gross development value (GDV) of ₹11,200 crore, representing around 75% of its full-year launch guidance of approximately ₹15,000 crore. The brokerage expects new launches worth ₹6,000 crore in Q3FY27, including Crystal Meadows Phase 1 in Bengaluru (₹20 billion), Gurugram Sector 63A Phase 2 (₹15 billion), Hyderabad (₹15 billion) and Whitefield (₹10 billion). Bengaluru remained Sobha's largest market in Q2FY27, contributing ₹1,310 crore, or approximately 60% of total presales, while the National Capital Region contributed ₹590 crore and Kerala and other cities accounted for around ₹300 crore.
HDFC Securities expects Sobha's margins to improve meaningfully from the second half of FY27 as revenue recognition increases from its unrecognised revenue book of ₹18,600 crore, which carries project-level EBITDA margins of more than 30%. The brokerage also believes Sobha's brand strength and focus on premium, end-user demand could support its performance even if investor-driven projects in Bengaluru experience a slowdown. As reported by LiveMint, HDFC Securities estimates net sales of ₹6,401 crore in FY27 and ₹7,615 crore in FY28. EBITDA is projected to rise to ₹995 crore in FY27 and ₹1,612 crore in FY28, compared with ₹310 crore in FY26. Adjusted profit after tax is estimated at ₹674 crore in FY27 and ₹1,151 crore in FY28, while diluted earnings per share are projected to increase from ₹18.1 in FY26 to ₹63.1 in FY27 and ₹107.2 in FY28.
The stock has touched its 52-week high of ₹1,730.90 in November 2025 before slipping to a 52-week low of ₹1,131.10 in April 2026. According to LiveMint, over the past year, it has fallen 19.5%, although it has gained 36% over the five-year period. HDFC Securities' bullish outlook is based on the company's strong launch pipeline, pricing strength, execution capabilities and expected recovery in profit margins, positioning Sobha for a potential sharp re-rating in the real estate sector. The brokerage's target price of ₹1,930 implies significant upside potential from current levels, with the stock's recent decline creating what analysts view as an attractive entry point for investors.
