The Indian stock market experienced a significant selloff during morning trading on Monday, March 2, as rising tensions in West Asia negatively impacted already wary market sentiment amid foreign capital withdrawals, geopolitical uncertainties, and lackluster earnings. According to reports from LiveMint, the Sensex began the day 2,743 points, or 3.34% lower at 78,543.73, but quickly reduced its losses. By around 14:04 IST, it was down 1,565.13 points, or 1.92% trading at 79,690.80. The Nifty 50 plummeted by over 500 points, exceeding 2%, reaching an intraday low of 24,645 but quickly regained some ground, trading 462.10 points, or 1.9% lower at 24,724 around 2 PM.
In the initial minutes of Monday's trading session, investors faced a loss exceeding ₹8 lakh crore, causing the total market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE to fall from ₹463.50 lakh crore to ₹455 lakh crore. As reported by LiveMint, the rupee fell by 21 paise to 91.29 versus the US dollar on Monday, influenced by rising crude oil prices, a robust US dollar, and heightened global instability stemming from increased tensions in the Middle East. Traders in the forex market noted that poor sentiment in the equity markets and significant foreign fund withdrawals also put pressure on the Indian currency.
According to Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, as reported by LiveMint, the Nifty 50 has witnessed a huge gap down today on the back of emerging geopolitical issues. The index has reached below all key moving averages, turning positional trend on the downside, and is now very near to the budget day (1st Feb 2026) low of 24,576. Rajani noted that break below 24,576 could drag the index further towards 100-week exponential moving average support placed at 24,060 odd levels, while on the higher side 25,000-25,200 could offer strong resistance.
According to market experts, the current environment favours gold ETFs as the primary safe-haven asset during geopolitical stress. Siddharth Srivastava, head at ETF Product & Fund Manager, Mirae Asset Investment Managers, told ETMarkets that in periods of heightened geopolitical stress, gold ETFs typically act as the primary safe-haven, while silver ETFs participate in risk-off moves but is influenced more by industrial demand. Shivam Pathak, CFP and Founder of Asset Elixir, shared similar views, stating that in geopolitical conflicts like the US-Israel-Iran situation, gold ETFs are the safer option as it is a pure safe-haven asset and reacts quickly to uncertainty. Both experts indicated that investors may consider allocating 10-15% of their overall portfolio to precious metals ETFs, with a higher tilt towards gold for stability.
As reported by LiveMint, Rajani recommends HDFC Gold Exchange Traded Fund (HDFCGOLD) at ₹142 with a target of ₹155 and stop-loss at ₹132. The ETF has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on weekly charts and is placed above all key moving averages, indicating uptrend on all time frames. Additionally, he suggests Oil India shares at ₹480 with a target of ₹520 and stop-loss at ₹450. Oil India share price is placed above all key moving averages and showing high relative strength as compared to the benchmark index.
According to Rajani's analysis reported by LiveMint, in the current market situation precious metal ETF could protect the portfolio and should have healthy allocation towards it. He also recommends oil exploration companies which could benefit from rising crude prices should have some allocation towards it in the portfolio. The analyst emphasizes that in the current market environment, investors should consider precious metals and oil exploration stocks as defensive plays amid geopolitical uncertainties and currency volatility.