GMR Airports is attracting multiple bullish brokerage views as its airport portfolio expands and businesses beyond passenger traffic become a bigger part of the growth story. JM Financial has maintained its 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹115, implying 23.7% upside from the current market price of ₹95.20, citing an improved risk-reward profile despite subdued passenger traffic conditions. The brokerage values the operational airports in India at GMR's long-term average 12-month forward EV EBITDA of 21x to derive its target price. Emkay Research has initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and target price of ₹120, implying about 25% upside, while Macquarie maintains an 'Outperform' rating with a 12-month target price of ₹120 and 29% total shareholder return.
GMR handled 9.44 million passengers across its airports excluding Cebu in August, up about 1% year-on-year, according to JM Financial's latest data. Including the recently added Nagpur and Bhogapuram airports, the reported growth remained positive, but organic passenger traffic declined 2.6% year-on-year. At GMR's key domestic airports — DIAL, GHIAL and GIAL — passenger traffic declined 2.4% YoY in August, with domestic passenger traffic dropping nearly 4% and GHIAL accounting for much of the weakness. Bhogapuram commenced commercial operations on 17 August and handled 0.11 million passengers during August, while Nagpur handled 0.22 million passengers, as reported by JM Financial. International traffic rose marginally by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating that non-aeronautical revenues are likely to sustain or improve.
Emkay Research highlights GMR's expansion beyond traditional airport operations, noting the company is taking greater control of activities such as duty-free, cargo, car parking and retail across its airport portfolio. Revenue from the standalone GAL platform rose to ₹4,200 crore in FY26 from ₹1,300 crore in FY25, according to Emkay. The brokerage said GMR Airports assumed full control of duty-free operations at Delhi and Hyderabad airports and cargo operations at Delhi Airport during FY26. GMR earned about ₹980 crore in lease income from monetised airport land in FY26, with Delhi contributing the bulk of the income, as reported by Emkay. The company has around 3,003 acres of commercial land across its five Indian airport assets, of which 552 acres have already been monetised.
JM Financial expects passenger traffic to remain under pressure through November 2026 due to the impact of the West Asia crisis, but growth is expected to improve from December 2026 as favourable base effects kick in following the IndiGo airline crisis in late 2025. The brokerage noted that resilience in international traffic could support non-aeronautical revenues, helping offset some of the weakness in passenger volumes. We expect weakness in passenger traffic to sustain till Nov'26, largely due to impact of the West Asia crisis. We do expect passenger traffic growth to rebound from Dec'26, largely due to favourable base effect, owing to the IndiGo airline crisis in late-CY25. The brokerage expects growth may get restored in Dec'26 and Jan'27 on favourable base effect.
Emkay expects GMR Airports' operating cash flow to grow at a 17% CAGR between FY26 and FY29E, supported by improving profitability and healthy cash conversion. The brokerage expects net debt-to-EBITDA to decline from 6.7 times in FY26 to 4.9 times by FY29E. Macquarie's estimates show revenue increasing from ₹10,410 crore in FY26 to ₹22,600 crore in FY29E, with EBITDA projected to rise from ₹5,760 crore to ₹9,110 crore over the same period. The brokerage also expects adjusted profit to increase from ₹180 crore in FY26 to ₹2,550 crore by FY29E. GMR's revenue mix shows aeronautical revenue of ₹3,028.5 crore in FY26, non-aeronautical revenue of ₹3,991.2 crore, and adjacencies of ₹3,720.8 crore, according to Emkay Research data.
