The Indian stock market is expected to open positively today as Gift Nifty Live Chart is trading around 24,004 level, a premium of nearly 3 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. According to latest reports from LiveMint, this represents a slight moderation from Tuesday's trading levels when Gift Nifty was around 24,030, nearly 40 points above Tuesday's spot Nifty close. The index had opened at 24,006 and touched an intraday high of 24,081, indicating strong momentum. Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, noted that the key benchmark index is facing a hurdle at 24,350-24,400 and would need to breach this decisively to establish conviction. At 0925 IST, the Nifty 50 was 0.3% higher at 23,925.85, up 72 points from its previous close, while the BSE Sensex was 0.4% higher at 76,541.01, up over 276 points. The fear gauge India VIX was nearly 5% lower at 13.6925, indicating reduced investor nervousness. However, Gift Nifty is currently trading around 24,000.5 level, a discount of 0.5 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, suggesting a more subdued opening compared to earlier expectations.
Iran is anticipated to gain significant financial benefits as part of its deal with the US, which will allow it to sell oil without delay, access a $300 billion development fund, and eventually retrieve its frozen assets, according to a final version of the agreement reported by Bloomberg. This development has significantly boosted market sentiment, with crude oil prices increasing as investors evaluated the possibility of the Iran conflict coming to a close and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures climbed 0.49% to $79.35 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate surged to $76.44 per barrel, up 0.51%. The preliminary agreement between the US and Iran is expected to ease supply concerns and potentially drive crude prices down to $70 per barrel in the medium term. This development is particularly beneficial for oil marketing companies, with integrated margins of Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. currently at $12-$14 per barrel.
On Tuesday, the Indian stock market extended its bullish momentum into the third consecutive trading session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing 135.25 points, or 0.57%, higher at 23,989.15, while the Sensex rallied 544.15 points, or 0.71%, to close at 76,808.48. According to LiveMint, the Nifty 50 formed a bullish inside-bar-like candlestick structure on the daily timeframe, indicating consolidation within the previous session's range while maintaining a positive bias. Most Nifty 50 constituents were up in early trade, with the index breaching the 23,900 level after almost three weeks. Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Media and Nifty IT gained more than 1%, with the IT sector up 1.5% and all members trading higher. HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in early trade among the 50-stock index constituents, rising for the second session after the company announced its plan to invest ₹14.27 billion in generative artificial intelligence firm Axonwise (Sarvam AI) by acquiring 10.5% stake. Tata Consumer Products was up nearly 3%, the top gainer in the Nifty 50, with the stock rising after global brokerage Citi maintained its 'buy' recommendation with a target price of ₹1,450 per share, implying an upside of nearly 32%.
Metal stocks faced significant pressure with the Nifty Metal index declining over 1% and being the worst-hit sectoral index. According to LiveMint, Hindalco Industries and JSW Steel were the key laggards, down 1.2-3.7%, with National Aluminium Co. becoming a major drag in the Nifty 200 as well as the Nifty 500 indices. The June futures contract of aluminium on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell to its lowest price since March-end at ₹350 per kilogram intraday. The war in West Asia that started in late February had further worsened the supply deficit of the lightweight metal as several aluminium smelters in the region were targeted in missile attacks and due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, some analysts expect this price drop to be a knee-jerk reaction, with the market still facing a major supply gap. Vedanta Aluminium Metal hit a 5% lower circuit at ₹471.11, while Sonata Software surged nearly 20% to an over three-month high of ₹311.90 following the approval of its merger scheme by the Chennai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal.
Vaishali Parekh of Prabhudas Lilladher emphasized that the Nifty 50 would need to sustain the important near-term support of the 50-EMA at the 23,750 zone, as mentioned earlier, and further downside would have major support near the 23,000 zone. According to LiveMint, the 24,030–24,100 zone, which coincides with the Supertrend level, will act as the immediate resistance area, with a decisive close above this band potentially paving the way for a move towards 24,300–24,380. The 23,880–23,800 zone has now turned into a key support area, and as long as the Nifty 50 index holds above this zone, the near-term outlook remains bullish. Derivative data suggests a range-bound undertone for the session, with the highest call open interest concentrated at the 24,000 strike and the highest put open interest positioned at the 23,900 strike, indicating strong resistance and support levels respectively. Ajit Mishra, SVP — Research at Religare Broking, noted that the Nifty 50 continued to build on its recent breakout, although the pace of the advance remains gradual, with the index potentially retesting the 24,200–24,500 zone in the near term.
