The Gift Nifty index plunged over 350 points during early morning trading on Monday, April 13, signaling a big gap-down opening for the Indian stock market. This represents a dramatic reversal from the previous session's 3.2% surge to 23,839, indicating a complete shift in market sentiment. The Sensex crashed over 1,600 points, or more than 2%, to an intraday low of 75,937, while the NSE benchmark Nifty 50 plunged 500 points, or 2%, to the day's low of 23,556. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices also plunged more than 2% each, with investors losing about ₹8 lakh crore within minutes as the overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms was at ₹443 lakh crore around 9:20 am compared to ₹451 lakh crore in the previous session. The selloff was attributed to the escalation of the US-Iran war following the failure of ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend.
Crude oil prices plunged dramatically following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, with US crude futures dropping approximately 16% to $94.59 per barrel and Brent crude declining around 15% to $92.35 per barrel. As reported by DSIJ, oil prices had previously moved higher due to concerns over the stability of the ceasefire and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The two-week ceasefire provides a defined negotiation window, but markets remain exposed to reversal risk if the truce breaks down. The scale of the decline reflected how heavily geopolitical risk had been priced into energy markets during the conflict, with the US dollar, which had served as the preferred safe-haven currency during the conflict, weakening across the board as investors rotated back into risk assets.
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, believes the undertone of the Indian stock market is cautious to negative following the escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Nifty 50 index needs to sustain above 23,700 to hold the support amid weak global sentiment, with immediate resistance at 23,800 where a close above would provide bulls relief and potentially trigger strong recovery in coming sessions. According to Live Mint, if the 50-stock index ends above 23,800 on Monday, then bulls may have a sigh of relief and respond strongly. The India VIX index crashed close to 21% and finished at around 19.50, indicating reduced volatility expectations. On the downside, support is placed at 23,400 zone, with the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.20, indicating relatively bullish positioning, with major open interest concentrated at 24,000 and 24,500 strikes making these key resistance levels.
On the Bank Nifty outlook, Parekh noted that the index witnessed a strong bounce back after a gap-up opening session, ending near the 56,000 zone, with bias and sentiment slightly easing out but still maintaining a cautious approach. According to Live Mint, the index would have the important resistance zone near the 57,000 level, which needs to be breached decisively above, while it would need to sustain the 53,500 level positioned as the important support zone. For today's trading, Parekh recommended three intraday stocks: PNB at ₹110 with target ₹100 and stop loss ₹115, ONGC at ₹290 with target ₹305 and stop loss ₹285, and BSE at ₹3273 with target ₹3500 and stop loss ₹3200. Speaking on the outlook, Parekh noted that the Nifty 50 index would need to stabilise and sustain above the 23800 zone as of now to establish conviction and clarity for further positive moves.
Global equities rallied sharply following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, with S&P 500 futures rising more than 2% and European futures surging over 4%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed close to 5% and South Korea's Kospi soared 6%, prompting a temporary trading halt. The MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan advanced around 4%. The two-week ceasefire removes the supply-risk premium that had pushed oil prices sharply higher over the previous six weeks, with the conflict having claimed thousands of lives and triggered a global energy crisis. The White House confirmed that the US will engage in direct negotiations with Iran, with Vice President JD Vance leading the delegation in Islamabad, while sporadic clashes continue including Iranian strikes on Gulf nations and the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely obstructed.
