Axis Securities has issued a 'Buy' recommendation for Bajel Projects Ltd with a target price of ₹198, representing a potential upside from the current market price of ₹179.45. According to the broker's analysis, the recommendation is based on the company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects in the power transmission and distribution sector.
Bajel Projects Ltd is a Bajaj Group power T&D EPC company that was demerged from Bajaj Electricals and listed in December 2023. The company brings 20+ years of experience in executing high-voltage transmission lines (132 kV–765 kV), AIS/GIS substations, and distribution infrastructure. Its Ranjangaon manufacturing unit, located 55 km from Pune, produces lattice towers, monopoles, and high masts with a proposed capacity of 1,10,000 MTPA, serving both domestic and export markets across 7+ countries.
The company maintains a robust unexecuted order book of ₹2,912 crore and holds an 'L1' position in multiple upcoming tenders. According to Axis Securities analysis, the transmission and distribution sector has undergone a structural pivot toward high-voltage infrastructure despite historical challenges from legacy distribution projects. The broker forecasts an EBITDA CAGR of 67% for FY25-28E, supported by the substantial order book, qualification advantages in niche power segments, and backward integration at the Ranjangaon facility.
As reported by Axis Securities, Bajel Projects is shifting its focus toward 'Quality of Earnings' by prioritising high-margin, complex projects over sheer volume. The company's growth is anchored by its technical expertise in high-voltage segments, including 765 kV transmission lines and advanced GIS substations. Looking ahead, the broker anticipates a significant PAT inflection in FY27E and FY28E due to the de-emphasis of low-margin volume, while the 400 kV and 765 kV segments are expected to drive premium realisations.
According to Axis Securities, the investment carries several key risks including a slowdown in PGCIL/State Transco, delays in legacy distribution projects, and execution risks that could impact the company's growth trajectory and financial performance.
