According to reports from Axis Securities, returns over Diwali 2026 to Diwali 2027 will increasingly depend on buying the right businesses at sensible valuations, monitoring earnings delivery and avoiding excessive concentration in expensive or speculative ideas. The brokerage firm's latest report titled 'Axis Diwali Mahurat Picks: SAMVAT 2083' identifies nine stocks with upside potential up to 20% for long-term investors. As per CNBC TV18, Uttam Kumar Srimal, Deputy Head-Fundamental Research at Axis Securities sees opportunities after the market correction, favouring private banks, metals, quick commerce, autos and hotels. The coming Samvat is likely to be shaped by the interaction of global inflation, crude oil prices, monetary-policy decisions, foreign capital flows and domestic earnings delivery, which may keep markets volatile and make a straight-line recovery unlikely.
As reported by Axis Securities, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened lower on Tuesday, weighed down by persistently high crude oil prices and selling pressure in IT stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 281.95 points to 73,316.21 in early trading, while the 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 63.15 points to 22,694.60. According to CNBC TV18, the Nifty declined 10.4% over the past year, while midcap and smallcap stocks also witnessed corrections. This has brought market valuations below their historical averages, improving the potential risk-reward for investors. Srimal noted that we are now trading on a forward basis 16.4 times compared to on a historical basis it was around 18.4 times, representing a valuation discount of around 12%. The firm emphasizes that rather than betting on broad market trends, it prefers companies that can deliver consistent earnings growth.
According to the Axis Securities report, DCB Bank leads with a target price of ₹240 and 20% upside potential, valued at 0.9x Sep'28E ABV. The brokerage forecasts the lender is set to enter H2 with strong business momentum, improved visibility on NIM improvement, healthy asset-quality indicators and a demonstrated ability to generate operating leverage, collectively contributing to a sustainable 1-1.05% RoA delivery. Coforge is another top pick, despite its strong share price performance over the previous six months, with a target of ₹2,245 and 18% upside, valued at 27x FY28E EPS, having delivered a Revenue/EBIT/PAT CAGR of 26%/26%/24% from FY20-26. The brokerage believes the IT services company's recent results were largely in line with expectations and expects its acquisition of Encora to contribute to revenue growth, with benefits beginning to show and additional business expected to support growth in coming quarters.
According to CNBC TV18, Axis Securities has identified nine stocks as its Diwali picks: DCB Bank, Nephrocare Health Services, Indian Hotels Company, Ashok Leyland, Coforge, Eternal, Hindalco Industries, APL Apollo Tubes and Elecon Engineering. Nephrocare Health Services follows with a target of ₹710 and 20% upside, valued at 33 P/E, well-positioned to benefit from growing demand for dialysis, increasing outsourcing by hospitals and the expansion of organised healthcare in India. Indian Hotels Company is recommended with a target of ₹900 and 15% upside, valued at 28x FY28E EBITDA, expected to deliver healthy growth supported by strong occupancy trends across key tier-1 cities. Ashok Leyland offers 17% upside with a target of ₹170 on P/E basis, while Eternal and Hindalco Industries are also included in the portfolio. The recommendations reflect several key themes identified by Axis Securities for Samvat 2083, including private banking, diagnostics, building materials, engineering, metals, automobiles, technology, and discretionary spending on travel and hospitality.
As reported by Axis Securities, the outlook is not without risks, with elevated energy prices and weaker monsoon potentially affecting inflation, rural demand and corporate margins. However, volatility can create opportunities for investors prepared to focus on business fundamentals and maintain a medium-term perspective. According to CNBC TV18, the brokerage is cautious on consumer durables, oil marketing companies (OMCs), paints, aviation, tyres and real estate, reflecting its selective approach to sectors where the outlook remains uncertain. The firm emphasizes that the balance between resilient domestic growth and imported cost pressures will be an important determinant of market performance through Samvat 2083, suggesting that careful stock selection and valuation-based investing will be crucial for navigating the current market environment. Srimal advises that investors should focus on companies with durable earnings growth rather than assume that lower valuations alone make every stock attractive.
