Indian equity markets are expected to face more downside in the near term as elevated crude prices, foreign investor selling and weaker-than-expected domestic flows weigh on sentiment, according to Anand Rathi Wealth's Feroze Azeez. Speaking to NDTV Profit, Azeez expects the Nifty to remain in a 23,000-24,200 range over the next two weeks, while cautioning that the index could face further pressure after failing to sustain a move above 24,000. The market expert has recommended three specific stocks for Monday trading with defined target prices and stop-loss levels, maintaining a cautious stance amid current market volatility. However, recent developments show the Nifty extended its losing streak to a third straight session on Wednesday, falling 203 points to close at 23,431, with the index opening 113 points lower and giving up more than 140 points from the day's high of 23,571. Gift Nifty at 23,480 signals a gap-down opening of about 50 points, indicating continued pressure at the domestic open.
Brent crude oil futures extended their rally on Wednesday, surging over 2.4%, hitting two-month high levels as the US conducted strikes on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, aggravating risks of supply disruptions from the region. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, WTI crude has climbed into the $96–97 per barrel range, while Brent is trading above $101.50 per barrel, reinforcing concerns over inflation and pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. Oil prices have surged nearly 43% from their late-June low of $70.14 per barrel, with the currency depreciating 29 paise to close at 95.11 against the US dollar. The US stock markets closed in deep red on Wednesday as Treasury yields surged to 3-year high levels, with the Dow Jones shedding over 400 points and S&P 500 losing 0.48%. Taking cues from elevated crude oil prices and rising bond yields, the benchmark indices in Asia opened lower, with the KOSPI falling over 2% and Japan's Nikkei at -1.3% on Thursday morning.
The NIFTY50 broke the pivotal support levels on Wednesday, opening the gates for further downside as it broke the July swing-low level of 23,600 and now shows the next support at 23,000, which is also a June swing-low level. After falling over 2% in the week, the spot price stands over 600 points away from the key moving averages of the 20 and 50 EMA, adding hope for some pullback from current levels. The RSI of 26 on the daily chart indicates an oversold zone, indicating a bounce back or a time consolidation in the index. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the Nifty's immediate support at 23,600 has been decisively breached, with the next downside level seen around 23,070. Osho Krishan of Angel One sees immediate support in the 23,380-23,350 zone, while a decisive break below this range could open the door for further weakness towards 23,250-23,200. According to Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, the market's response around the 23,400-23,300 zone will be crucial in determining whether the decline extends further or bargain buying sparks a technical recovery.
On sectoral positioning, Azeez remains positive on Nifty Energy and Nifty Pharma, while maintaining negative stance on Nifty IT, Auto and Realty sectors. He sees the Energy index, around 38,500, potentially moving towards 40,000-41,000, while Pharma could rise from around 26,000 towards 28,000-29,000. His top stock picks include NBCC (India) at ₹87 with a target price of ₹95 and stop loss of ₹83, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) at ₹3,275 targeting ₹3,450 with stop loss at ₹3,220, and Tata Steel at ₹188 targeting ₹198 with stop loss at ₹182. From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 is expected to remain range-bound between 23,000 and 24,200 in the near term, with immediate support around 23,900–23,800 and resistance at 24,200–24,300. Among Nifty 50 stocks, Adani Enterprises, Max Healthcare and Adani Ports were the top gainers, while Infosys, HDFC Life and HCLTech ended as the biggest laggards.
