The fast-moving Middle East conflict is heightening investor anxiety and strengthening the case for safe-haven trades such as Treasuries, gold and the Swiss franc. According to Bloomberg, traders are adopting the strategy of 'haven first, ask questions later' as the scale of attacks and Iranian retaliation is larger than what the market expected. The US dollar surged and Swiss franc edged higher against major peers while the yen remained little changed in early Asian trading. President Trump's escalating U.S.-Israel military strikes against Iran continue to pressure airline stocks while supporting energy prices, creating complex sector rotation dynamics where geopolitical tensions benefit some industries while harming others. Roundhill Financial's Dave Mazza is closely tracking what happens to traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway handling about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, noting that 'if shipping stays open, stocks can work through it, if it doesn't, all bets are off.'
Indian stock markets fell sharply as Nifty 50 dropped 1.92% to 24,388.8 and Sensex shed 2.13% to 78,528.82 as of 9:15 IST on Wednesday. According to Motilal Oswal's Ruchit Jain, the short-term trend for Nifty remains negative as factors like rising geopolitical tensions, rising crude prices, USDINR depreciation and FIIs selling are leading to bearish momentum in equities. The India VIX surged by an astonishing 25%, representing the market's expectation of short-term volatility. The immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed around 24,330 which is the August 2025 lows, and if the index sustains below this level, a continuation of the downward trend could occur. Jain advises traders to stay cautious until we see any signs of trend reversal.
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One, recommends buying Atul around ₹6,640–6,600 with targets of ₹7,100 and ₹7,200, and stop-loss at ₹6,300. The stock has been in a secular uptrend, hovering above all its significant EMAs with a 'Flag' pattern formation and multiple positive crossovers. Pidilite Industries is suggested for buying around ₹1,480–1,470 with targets of ₹1,560 and ₹1,580, and stop-loss at ₹1,415. The counter has rebounded from its strong demand zone and surged above its 20 and 50 DEMA, with the MACD histogram portraying a bullish reversal signal on the daily timeframe.
Jammu and Kashmir Bank is recommended for buying around ₹121.39 with targets of ₹130 and ₹140, and stop-loss at ₹115. According to Axis Securities, the stock has delivered a decisive breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase, surging past the crucial ₹118 resistance on a closing basis. IDBI Bank is suggested for buying around ₹116 with targets of ₹155, supported by a powerful breakout from an exceptionally long 722-week Volatility Contraction Pattern near ₹105. However, experts recommend a selective approach in banking, suggesting investors stick to stronger, well-managed banks rather than taking blanket exposure across the PSU banking segment, as some experts warned about potential risks as credit growth gathers pace.
Indian Oil Corporation is recommended for buying around ₹187.47 with targets of ₹200 and ₹215, and stop-loss at ₹180. As reported by Lakshmishree Investments, IOC has staged a strong recovery, decisively clearing the key multi-year resistance at ₹183. Bharat Forge is suggested for buying around ₹1,911.2 with targets of ₹2,050 and ₹2,160, and stop-loss at ₹1,800. The stock has delivered a powerful breakout to fresh all-time highs, clearing the multi-year resistance zone around ₹1,805. Among metals, steel companies drew attention with stocks such as Steel Authority of India Limited and JSW Steel displaying constructive price and volume behaviour over the past few weeks. Interestingly, recent pullbacks in these counters have not been accompanied by heavy selling volumes, often a sign that long-term holders are not exiting aggressively.
Ruchit Jain from Motilal Oswal recommends Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) at ₹454 with stop-loss at ₹428 and target at ₹500, noting that the defense stock could see positive momentum due to the ongoing war situation and BEL has the strongest chart structure within the sector. He also suggests ONGC at ₹282 with stop-loss at ₹270 and target at ₹300, citing that ONGC has recently given a breakout from a year's consolidation phase and is forming a 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' structure, with rising crude oil prices benefiting upstream companies.
