India has scaled down its fertiliser requirement for kharif 2026 to 38.39 million tonnes, down from the earlier projected 39.05 million tonnes, as reported by Business Standard. The revision comes after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a 'below-normal' monsoon for 2026, with rainfall expected at 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), down from the earlier predicted 92 per cent. According to the latest assessment, the country will now require around 19.03 million tonnes of urea as against the earlier assessed 19.40 million tonnes (down 1.9 per cent), while requirement for di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) has been reduced to 5.62 million tonnes from the earlier assessed 5.91 million tonnes (down 4.9 per cent). The Department of Agriculture & Family Welfare has re-assessed the requirement for Kharif-2026, with urea demand revised from 194.02 to 190.32 lakh tonnes and DAP from 59.17 LMT to 56.23 LMT.
India currently maintains a strong stock position with around 19.98 million tonnes of fertilisers in stock, which means it has almost 52 per cent of the total reassessed requirement in stock as of today, as reported by Business Standard. This reflects improved planning, advance stocking, and efficient logistics management by the government. The government has also added around 13.24 million tonnes of fertilisers to total availability through imports and domestic production since the West Asia crisis. Additionally, domestic fertiliser production in May 2026 reached around 2.51 million tonnes, which was 0.28 million tonnes more than in May 2025, demonstrating increased domestic production capabilities during the current crisis period.
The government has issued a second global tender to import 1.7 million tonne of urea for the kharif season, despite a sharp rise in international prices. According to Business Standard, so far, the country has already secured around 2.5 million tonnes of urea, 1.5 million tonnes of DAP and 1 million tonnes of NPKs through tenders since the crisis, which will arrive at Indian ports in June and July. This represents the second tender for the kharif season as the Centre moves to ensure adequate fertiliser supplies amid disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis. Aparna S Sharma, Additional Secretary in the Fertiliser Ministry, confirmed during an inter-ministerial briefing that the tender is currently under process, with the final price to be discovered through the bidding process.
The global price of urea has experienced a dramatic increase, jumping from $447 per tonne in February to $947 per tonne currently, as reported by PTI. This represents a significant price escalation that has prompted the government to issue multiple tenders to secure adequate supplies for the agricultural season. The surge in prices has created challenges for fertiliser procurement amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region and concerns linked to the El Niño weather pattern.
The IMD's second-stage monsoon forecast for 2026 indicates that rainfall is expected to be below normal due to the development of El Niño during the monsoon season, with the Indian Ocean Dipole expected to be neutral. According to Business Standard, no part of the country, barring North-East India, is expected to receive normal rainfall this year. Most worryingly, the southwest monsoon over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal at less than 94 per cent of the LPA. This could have a damaging impact on the production of major pulses and oilseeds, including soybean, tur, urad and cotton, as well as sugarcane and some cereals, as most of the monsoon core zone lies in the central and western parts of India.
