Bitcoin recovered to nearly $64,000 in Asian trading, reclaiming the $63,000 level after dipping to about $62,250 on Monday, according to latest market data. The cryptocurrency has gained 1.6% over 24 hours and 1% on the week, marking a significant recovery from recent lows. The low came near $62,250 before a steady bid carried it to just above $64,117 overnight, demonstrating continued buying interest despite ongoing market uncertainties. The daily relative strength index (RSI) remained weak at 22 and 14, placing the indicator close to its lower range, while the MACD showed weakening momentum with a negative histogram and the MACD line below the signal line. Bitcoin has stabilized slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $63,183, which has acted as a short-term pivot since early July, with the recovery bringing prices into the $63,800 to $64,100 upside liquidation cluster where further gains could force leveraged short positions to close.
Short-term holders (STH) led Bitcoin's early sell-off, adding to the asset's recent decline as bearish chatter peaked on July 31st when Bitcoin tumbled from a high of $65,409 to $62,466. Axel Adler's STH profit/loss-to-exchange metric shows a heavy wave of selling since the start of August, reaching a cumulative -7,336.40 BTC, worth roughly $468.31 million at the time of writing. However, the selling appears panic-driven, with the latest reading on August 3rd showing net purchases of roughly 3,150.66 BTC, a sharp turn from the -7,551.09 and -2,935.97 net figures recorded on August 1st and 2nd. This swing back to buying points to early accumulation, which could feed into Bitcoin's performance in the days ahead. The LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio has surged to a fresh high of roughly 0.9355, climbing steadily since July 21st, indicating heavier selling from long-term investors who usually hold through volatility.
Strategy disclosed in an Aug. 3 SEC filing that it sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and Aug. 2 for $104.73 million, with the average sale price of $63,957 compared to the company's $75,419 average acquisition cost. The company directed $52.4 million of the proceeds toward preferred stock dividends and $52.3 million toward STRC repurchases, leaving Strategy to hold 842,138 BTC acquired for about $63.51 billion. Strategy shares traded near $94.86, up about 1.6% at the time of writing, showing the filing did not trigger an immediate equity selloff despite the significant Bitcoin sale. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor later said "Strategy is a public company, not my wallet," separating the corporate decision from his personal Bitcoin position. The transaction was Strategy's third disclosed Bitcoin sale of 2026, following a revised capital plan that permits sales for dividends, security repurchases and reserve management.
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn linked Monday's activity to a fourth suspected Coldcard attack wave, with his revised estimate covering 448.7 BTC moving from 709 possible victim addresses. Adding the fourth estimate to earlier mapped waves produces roughly 1,815.75 BTC across 5,294 addresses, assuming no overlap. Roughly 1,816 BTC, about $114 million, was removed from more than 5,200 addresses since July 30, according to researchers tracking the cold wallet hack, which exploited a flaw in the Coldcard wallet's firmware. Coinkite said fixed firmware now protects newly generated seeds, but updating a device does not repair a seed created under vulnerable firmware. Users must generate a completely new seed and transfer their remaining Bitcoin to addresses controlled by it. CryptoQuant data lends support to the custody migration explanation, with transfers below 1 BTC reaching 39,600 BTC on Friday, their highest daily total since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The fourth Coldcard wave also included transactions that opted into Replace by Fee, according to Thorn, with users potentially able to replace malicious transfers with higher fee transactions directing funds to secure wallets.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to "extreme fear" at 25, reflecting continued market uncertainty despite Bitcoin's recovery. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $61.5 million outflows last week, while $170 million came in yesterday, showing volatile investor sentiment. Ether ETFs saw $27.4 million inflows last week, with another $11.4 million leaving on Monday. Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with the yen at minus 0.90 points to dollar strength as the larger risk, though the yen slumped almost 4% after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the U.S. joined Japan in coordinated intervention. Derivatives positioning shows elevated positioning in altcoins like ATOM and ADA, while bitcoin and ether futures stay subdued. BTC's 30-day implied volatility index has now dipped to nearly 36%, its lowest since May 31, pointing to market calm but calling for caution as it trades cheap relative to its 30- and 200-day averages.
