US consumer confidence has fallen to 81.9 in September 2026 from 88.6 in August, according to the Conference Board measure released on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The reading came in weaker than the consensus forecast of 89.2 and represents a 12-year low for consumer sentiment. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, well below the Reuters poll forecast of 89.2. The decline was substantially worse than economists expected, with the current conditions index dropping 8 points while expectations fell 6 points, with the headline reading failing to meet any survey forecasts. As reported by The Conference Board, consumers expect both business conditions and the labor market to weaken over the next six months, reflecting a sharper deterioration than anticipated. The Expectations Index has declined for three consecutive months, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and reaching 63.6, which historically correlates with elevated recession risk. The survey was conducted online from September 1-23, targeting a consumer panel of more than 36 million people.
The consumer confidence decline coincides with a dramatic deterioration in household financial reserves, as the US personal savings rate dropped to 4.1% in August 2026, marking its lowest level since November 2022, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. August's reading fell 0.5% from July and has dropped 1.6 points since January 2025. Excluding the 2022 inflation shock, this marks the lowest level since 2008, with the five-year average now sitting at 5.4%, the weakest in 14 years. The savings crisis reflects persistent inflation in housing, food, and energy that continues to squeeze household budgets nationwide. As reported by The Conference Board, Kyle Moore, chief economist at The Century Foundation, noted that "The economy is stagnant for the typical American household, which has been caused by the erratic public policy environment that makes it tough for businesses and households to plan for the future." The deterioration in confidence was across political party affiliation, age and income groups, with the findings similar to last week's University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers report, as reported by Reuters.
Despite the confidence decline and savings crisis, US consumers continue spending, with high-income households leading the trend. According to ING analysis, the top 20% of households by income (those making $155,000 or more based on 2024 numbers) account for more than 40% of all spending. Moody's Analytics data suggests this skew toward high-income households is even greater, with the top 20% currently accounting for more than 60% of all consumer spending. This spending pattern is supported by years of substantial property and stock market gains among wealthy households. As reported by The Conference Board, Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, notes that consumer assessments of current business conditions become negative for the first time since September 2024, while perceptions of the current labor market also worsen, though they remain in positive territory. The present situation index, which reflects current business conditions and the labor market, was 109.3, down 7.9 points from the previous month.
The spending disparity reflects significant wealth concentration in the US economy. Federal Reserve figures show that the top 20% of households by income hold 70% of household wealth, while the bottom 60% of households by income hold only 15% of America's wealth. As reported by ING, this wealth distribution explains why median households remain concerned about weak income growth, job security, and high prices, while high-income households continue spending strongly despite confidence concerns. The September reading also suggests consumers are becoming more concerned about near-term economic momentum, with the survey pointing to a more fragile outlook for the months ahead as expectations for both jobs and business activity weaken. According to The Conference Board, consumers' answers about factors affecting the economy also hit a record high for mentions of prices, the high expense of goods and services, and oil and gas. The current conditions index dropped 8 points while expectations fell 6 points, with the headline reading failing to meet any survey forecasts.
The JOLTS data reveals continued weakness in labor market dynamics that support the consumer spending disparity. Job openings declined 256,000 to 7,079,000 versus the 7,228,000 consensus forecast. The quits rate remained at 1.9%, which historically correlates with wage growth of 2.75%-3.00% year-on-year. According to ING analysis, this low hire, low fire economy means workers aren't quitting, creating no pressure on firms to raise wages to retain staff. Until job market churn increases, there's no real prospect of longer-lasting second-round price effects from higher energy costs. The current conditions index dropped 8 points while expectations fell 6 points, with the headline reading failing to meet any survey forecasts.
The consumer confidence data suggests a weakening relationship between sentiment and spending over the past couple of years, as reported by ING. While historically, these confidence readings have been consistent with consumer spending falls, the current environment shows this relationship has weakened significantly. The Expectations Index has declined for three consecutive months, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and reaching 63.6, which historically correlates with elevated recession risk. The falling confidence signals potential softening in household spending, increasing risk for U.S. economic growth due to consumption's pivotal role. At this level, Americans' outlook for the coming months is sending a considerably weaker signal than the headline confidence number alone, with the deterioration extending beyond expectations to current business conditions falling 3.4 percentage points to -1.9%. As reported by The Conference Board, consumers see both business conditions and the market worsening over the next six months, reflecting growing economic and job market concerns across all income segments. The confidence plunge mirrors other polls showing growing disenchantment over the economy heading into the November 3 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress, as reported by Reuters.
