A $42 million prediction-market snapshot reveals a closely divided outlook for the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with slightly more than 50% of participants backing a 25-basis-point rate hike and just over 45% expecting rates to remain unchanged. This represents a significant shift from earlier market expectations, as Kalshi traders had previously assigned a 79% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Wednesday, September 16, 2026, meeting. The close split puts the September decision at the center of the macro calendar for markets, including Bitcoin, with the choices attracting meaningful interest being a hike or unchanged rates, leaving the September decision closely contested according to Federal News Network. Kalshi on the other hand has over $85 million wagered on the FOMC odds for today's meeting, with only 12% believing that the rates stay the same, and 86% betting on a rate hike, showing a more decisive market view than the prediction-market snapshot.
Bitcoin trades near $77,732 as subdued selling and a tougher macroeconomic environment capped its recovery above $80,000. The cryptocurrency has remained range-bound between $76,000 and $77,000 after Friday's volatility, with analysts highlighting the upcoming US Federal Reserve decision as the immediate risk factor. Fed hike odds have risen steadily to 87% following hotter-than-expected CPI data, with the cryptocurrency now trading several thousand dollars lower than when BTC was climbing toward $82,000. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin gained 0.3% while Ethereum fell 0.3% to trade at $2,520, according to The Economic Times. The market reaction reflects growing expectations for monetary policy tightening amid persistent inflation concerns, with the uncertainty around the September FOMC decision creating a closely divided view among prediction-market participants rather than a settled consensus.
Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast, now expecting a 25-basis-point rate increase when policymakers conclude their September 16 meeting. The bank's economists stated that the August Consumer Price Index report produced only a small revision to their core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation estimate, with core PCE inflation forecast raised to 0.26% monthly. As reported by Reuters, Goldman abandoned its previous forecast for no change after August consumer inflation data and interest-rate futures strengthened the case for a hike. Interest-rate futures assigned an 87% probability to a September hike after the inflation release, up from 72% one day earlier, with the probability of at least one increase by year-end reaching 97%. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September meeting, up from around 70% before the latest economic data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. The Fed has not committed to that decision, and futures pricing represents market expectations, not an official indication from policymakers.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after seasonal adjustment, with headline inflation remaining at 3.4% over the preceding 12 months, up from 3.3% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month, with its annual rate easing to 2.4% from 2.5%, reaching its lowest level in five years. Energy costs presented a different picture, with the energy index increasing 16.3% over the year through August, while food prices gained 2.7%. Communication services, lodging, airline fares, education, and used vehicles recorded monthly increases, while medical care and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories that declined. Energy prices up 2.1% in August and 16.3% year over year, with gasoline alone up +3.9% for the month and +27.4% annually, according to BLS data. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk estimated that services excluding housing components increased 0.5% during August and 3% from one year earlier, describing the service data as evidence of persistent pressure despite the lower annual core rate. The shift in Goldman's outlook comes after stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data further fuelled inflation worries, with the combination of firmer price pressures and rising energy costs prompting investors and several Wall Street brokerages to increase expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
The week ahead is crucial, with the Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act scheduled for tomorrow, followed by the FOMC meeting, according to The Economic Times. These events could decide Bitcoin's next move, with the immediate risk being the September 16 US Federal Reserve decision. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.34 billion between August 19 and September 4, helping BTC recover from about $62,000 to $82,000. Over the last week, Bitcoin was down 2.7% and Ethereum was up 0.4%, with mixed performance across altcoins. Prateek Gupta from Mudrex highlighted that market signals remain mixed, with on-chain data showing "extreme greed," the highest since March 2024, while retail sentiment remains on the bearish end. Riya Sehgal from Delta Exchange noted that Bitcoin is attempting to stabilise after defending the $76,000 region, with the latest rebound pushing price back toward $77,800, while Ethereum shows relatively stronger short-term structure, reclaiming $2,500 and trading near $2,517. If the Fed hikes by 25 basis points, three scenarios shape the near-term outlook: the base case of hawkish guidance pressuring Bitcoin, a second scenario where final-cycle messaging supports markets, and a third scenario where holding rates steady creates volatility as a surprise against strong hike expectations.
