Oracle Corp. shares have declined nearly 20% so far in 2026 and have fallen more than 50% from their record high reached last September. According to Investing.com, the stock is currently trading near the $158 level, down from its all-time high of $350 reached mid-September 2025. The stock is trending lower in Thursday's pre-market trading ahead of fiscal first-quarter earnings today, September 10, after the market closes. Options pricing suggests traders see the stock moving up to 11% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size could lift the stock above $175 or drag it below $142 from current levels. The stock has been under pressure amid worries over the company's fundraising and spending plans, as well as the concentration of its backlog with a few large AI companies.
Wall Street expects Oracle to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74 for Q1 FY27, reflecting 18.4% year-over-year growth, according to latest estimates. Revenue is estimated to rise 28.1% to $19.13 billion, fueled by AI-driven demand for cloud infrastructure and applications. The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters and in four of the last 10 quarters overall. As reported by Investing.com, adjusted earnings are projected to increase to $1.74 per share from $1.47 a year earlier, while net profit is forecast to rise to $4.06 billion from $2.93 billion. Cloud revenue is projected to grow 63% year over year, reaching the upper end of Oracle's 58%–65% guidance range, with the company's GPU-as-a-service offering expected to serve as a key growth driver. However, the company reported $55.66 billion in capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 and expects spending to approach $70 billion in the coming year.
Despite equity raise concerns, analysts maintain positive ratings on Oracle stock with a Strong Buy consensus based on 26 Buys and four Holds. Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $400, calling Oracle his 'Best Idea' and a 'Decade Stock' for long-term capital appreciation. Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-Weight rating with a raised price target from $207 to $210, while RBC Capital kept a Sector Perform rating with a price target of $190. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target from $320 to $290, and TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating but reduced its price target from $300 to $240. Scotiabank analyst Patrick Colville cut his price target on Oracle to $215 from $241 but kept a Buy rating, saying "bad news is currently priced in," while positive developments could help drive the shares higher. The average ORCL stock price target of $257.59 indicates 59% upside potential from current levels.
Four critical areas will be closely watched during Oracle's earnings report and management commentary, according to Citizens analyst Patrick Walravens. These include the health of Oracle's relationship with OpenAI, if the company is on track for long-term revenue guidance, long-term financing plans, and if Oracle can deliver its data center capacity plans. Growth in Oracle's deferred revenue has exceeded recognized cloud-applications revenue for two consecutive quarters, indicating a strong pipeline of future sales. Remaining performance obligations totaled $638 billion at the end of the fourth quarter—an increase of 363% from the prior year. The company previously shared fiscal 2027 guidance of $130 billion in revenue for fiscal 2028 and $185 billion for fiscal 2029, with investors closely watching to see if these figures are increased after first quarter results. Oracle's backlog is expected to have grown to nearly $640 billion, up 40% year-over-year, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.
Oracle is widely viewed as having one of the highest levels of exposure to spending risks among major artificial intelligence companies. Investor concerns have centered on Oracle's fundraising and spending plans, as well as the heavy concentration of its backlog among a small number of major artificial intelligence companies. The company's debt has risen sharply since the beginning of 2025, while analysts expect Oracle to continue reporting negative free cash flow through 2029. In July, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle's credit rating to the lowest investment-grade level, and the cost of five-year credit default swaps recently reached a record high. An equity raise has been an overhang on Oracle stock since fourth-quarter financial results, with Guggenheim analysts noting that investors want to see material progress this quarter. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, who have a neutral rating on the stock, warned in a recent note that it could take several quarters of solid results for Oracle to win over wary investors amid worries about an AI bubble.
