Bitcoin price has rebounded to $82,000 after falling below $80,000 following hotter-than-expected inflation data that lifted Treasury yields and pressured technology stocks. The cryptocurrency is up 1.5% in the latest 24-hour trading session, recovering from yesterday's low of $79,950. Liquidations neared $944 million in the past 24 hours, with leveraged long positions accounting for most forced exits. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor told Bloomberg Television that Bitcoin's bear market had ended and forecasts a return above $100,000, though the price has not cleared the $84,000–$84,500 resistance area. The recovery comes after Bitcoin fell below $80,000 following inflation data that lifted Treasury yields and hit technology stocks, with traders now weighing a new macro signal that could flip Bitcoin's price prediction.
Fidelity's research found Bitcoin's market-cap correlation with the 10-year real rate above 0.6, marking a new record correlation between the cryptocurrency and Treasury real yields. According to Fidelity's analysis, Bitcoin rose nearly 30% and Treasury rates gained more than 10% over the two months, creating a significant shift in the relationship between the two assets. The link matters because rising real yields have often pressured risk assets, but this time the relationship has flipped. Fidelity also ties the shift to the US debt burden, now above $40 trillion, providing macro context for the correlation change. The discovery gives traders a new macro framework for understanding Bitcoin's price movements, though the near-term chart remains unsettled with bids around $80,000 helping absorb the inflation shock.
At $82,000, Bitcoin is hovering at the $82,000–$82,500 resistance band after trading as low as $79,950 yesterday. The cryptocurrency has lost the $81,250 monthly midpoint and sits above its 30-day simple moving average near $83,051, which is encouraging for bullish momentum. Support sits near $80,000, where Binance spot bids were filled, with the 50-day moving average around $80,300 as the more consequential trend test. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator showed weakening momentum, with the MACD line at 592 below the signal line of 1,040 and a negative histogram of -448. The Relative Strength Index stood at 53.13, below its moving average of 56.82, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory. A sustained move above $82,500 would improve the short-term structure, while a daily close below $80,300 would warn that the broader uptrend is weakening.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expressed optimism about potential interest-rate increases this year, stating he still sees one more rate hike as appropriate this year. However, futures traders price in 93% odds that rates end 2027 at least 50 basis points higher, creating a notable divergence between Fed expectations and market pricing. Williams doesn't believe it will be necessary for the central bank to increase rates again in 2027, stating he doesn't have any reason to believe the Fed would need to do more after the anticipated single hike. Williams' comments are fully at odds with the current market outlook for 50 basis points of rate hikes in 2027, with CME FedWatch data showing October hike odds at 23.8% and traders expecting the next move on December 9 with hike odds at 89.8%. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield has edged lower to 4.797% on Williams' comments, with Treasury yields moving lower following the comments and the dollar index extending losses, trading down 0.36% at 102.17.
The October 16 expiry of about $1.46 billion in Bitcoin options could add short-term volatility to Bitcoin's price action. The setup is not a confirmed breakout, with traders assessing inflation and Treasury yields while Bitcoin recovery scenarios offer different views of the levels and catalysts in play. Inflation data and rate-cut expectations explain why higher real yields can raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, creating additional pressure on Bitcoin. The sell-off has made the risk plain: Bitcoin can still react sharply when inflation pushes yields higher, even with buyers defending $80,000. If support holds, ETF inflows persist, BTC could reclaim $84,000, though there will likely be volatile consolidation between $80,000 and $82,500 while traders assess macro conditions. However, a daily break below $80,300 exposes the rebound to further pressure.
Williams' comments helped lift Asian markets, with MSCI's Asia Pacific equities index rising 0.7% on Wednesday as technology shares recovered from recent selling. South Korea's KOSPI climbed approximately 1.8%, while Japan's Nikkei gained around 0.2%. The recovery comes ahead of key earnings reports, with ASML reporting earnings on Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reporting on Thursday. Oil kept climbing, with Brent crude trading around $106 per barrel amid concerns about attacks in the Middle East and movement of oil shipments through the Persian Gulf. U.S. crude rose for a fifth straight day, while energy prices continue to create uncertainty in global markets. The market's path would extend pressure on crypto markets, with hike bets already lifting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to an 18-month high and the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5.35% on October 8, its highest in 24 years.
