A viral post from researcher Bull Theory on June 16 claims a $1,499 AMD desktop box could disrupt Nvidia's AI computing empire. According to the post, AMD chief Lisa Su demonstrated a mini PC at CES in January that runs large AI models on a desk without cloud infrastructure or rented GPUs. The analysis suggests this hardware could convert monthly cloud AI bills of $2,800 into just a few dollars of electricity, potentially converting cloud customers permanently to on-premise solutions.
Financial market data reveals institutional investors are already positioning against Nvidia. Chaikin Money Flow has turned firmly negative at -0.168 for Nvidia, representing the weakest reading among major chip companies. Conversely, AMD shows a positive +0.209 reading, indicating strong accumulation in the AI chip group. Against the SOXX semiconductor index, Nvidia scores just 58.5 on relative strength while AMD achieves 123, with the company now leading its own sector despite once dwarfing AMD.
Major technology companies are developing in-house AI solutions that reduce dependence on Nvidia chips. Google has committed up to one million of its custom chips to Anthropic and is in talks to supply Meta. Amazon operates custom silicon across its cloud at scale, with in-house chips now comprising about 28% of AI server shipments, up from roughly 20% a year ago. These developments represent the first time Nvidia's own customers and cheaper rivals are routing around the company, though Nvidia still maintains approximately 70% of the AI chip market.
Options market positioning has shifted significantly following the viral post. The Nvidia put/call ratio by volume has risen to about 0.63, up from a call-heavy 0.49 just one day earlier. This rising ratio indicates traders are increasingly taking downside hedging positions, with bearish sentiment emerging post-June 16. Crypto traders on Nansen hold their largest chip short against Nvidia, ahead of every peer, while the options desk and perpetual market both point away from Nvidia stock.
Despite bearish sentiment, Nvidia stock maintains a near 10% year-to-date uptick, trading around $207 at press time. The company continues to hold approximately 70% of the AI chip market, though this represents erosion rather than collapse as customers and cheaper rivals begin routing around traditional Nvidia solutions. The market's response suggests investors are positioning for potential disruption to Nvidia's cloud AI rental business, which represents the company's most profitable segment.
