SpaceX has been added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on Tuesday, less than a month after making its stock market debut on June 12, making it one of the fastest firms to enter the widely tracked benchmark. According to Reuters, the company carries a weighting of about 1.34% in the Nasdaq-100, significantly lower than heavyweight constituents such as Nvidia and Apple, as Nasdaq assigns weights based on companies' public free float. J.P. Morgan estimates the company's inclusion could generate approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows, with more than $587 billion in assets benchmarked against the Nasdaq-100, including the popular Invesco QQQ ETF. The index inclusion is expected to create fresh demand for SpaceX shares as exchange-traded funds and index funds rebalance their portfolios to reflect the benchmark's updated composition. Despite the milestone, SpaceX shares fell 5.4% on Tuesday, mirroring weakness across high-growth technology stocks amid investor concerns over whether the artificial intelligence-driven rally can be sustained.
Wall Street analysts have launched overwhelmingly bullish coverage of SpaceX following the expiration of the 25-day post-IPO quiet period after the company's $75 billion June IPO. The stock, which priced at $135 in June's $75 billion IPO, was recently trading at $150.93, down more than 6% from post-listing highs but still above its offering price. Major underwriters and banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others, issued buy-equivalent ratings with price targets ranging from $205 to as high as $800. The most optimistic forecast came from Raymond James, where analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, with the firm stating they see the company as 'one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century'. The broad support reflects Wall Street's confidence in SpaceX's position across several fast-growing businesses, including launch services, satellite broadband through Starlink and government contracts. However, not all analysts share the bullish outlook, with MoffettNathanson, KeyBanc and Argus Research having neutral-equivalent ratings, while CFRA is the only brokerage with a sell rating and a price target of $115.
A major pillar of Wall Street's optimism is Starship, SpaceX's next-generation fully reusable rocket, which analysts expect to become the company's primary long-term growth engine if commercial deployment scales successfully. According to Reuters, forecasts for Starship launches vary across brokerages, with J.P. Morgan projecting roughly 5,000 launches annually by 2031, Wells Fargo estimating around 4,600, Bernstein expecting about 3,500, while UBS forecasts more than 1,500 launches depending on the pace of technological progress and reusability. Morgan Stanley models roughly 6,000 Starship launches per year by 2040, implying about 16.5 launches per day across five pad complexes and 10 towers, with each Ship reused around 40 times and each booster about 130 times. The firm expects 75% to more than 90% of Starship launches to be used internally between 2027 and 2040, flowing directly into Starlink V3 deployment and other infrastructure programmes.
Morgan Stanley's analysis centers on SpaceX's 'secret AI weapon' - a vertically integrated terrestrial-plus-orbital compute stack. As reported by The Economic Times, the brokerage estimates three generations of AI satellites, progressing from roughly 150 kW of total power and 2.1 tonnes of mass to about 913 kW of power and 6.1 tonnes per satellite. They model orbital compute deployments beginning in 2028 at 160 MW, reaching 2.7 GW in 2030, 21 GW in 2032, 111 GW in 2035 and 364 GW by 2040. The firm argues that orbital compute could reach cost parity with current industry terrestrial compute by 2031 on an all-in annualised basis. A large portion of capex is directed towards Terafab, Solarfab and other vertical integration efforts, including blade/vane foundry and terrestrial communications infrastructure, pushing infrastructure capex to roughly $4–$5 per watt (excluding chips) versus industry averages closer to $9 per watt. The $600 bull case assumes AI-related business becomes the dominant revenue driver by 2040, potentially surpassing both traditional rocket launches and Starlink services.
Starlink remains SpaceX's most profitable and important business, accounting for approximately 61% of the company's total sales and being the only profitable segment. The satellite internet service currently has 12 million subscribers and generated $11.4 billion in sales in 2025, with $4.4 billion in operating income. SpaceX is preparing for a 1,200 satellite launch in mid-2027 using its Starship rocket and analysts estimate Starlink's U.S.-based subscribers will reach 15 million by 2030, up from just 3 million currently. Conservative estimates place Starlink's global total addressable market at $129 billion according to Morningstar. The company is also exploring potential acquisitions, with analysts suggesting T-Mobile as a likely target to expand its internet business, though this remains speculation at this point. With a market capitalization of around $2 trillion, SpaceX has become the sixth-largest listed U.S. company, while Elon Musk has become the world's first trillionaire.
