President Donald Trump has signaled a sharp escalation in the Iran war, heightening the risk of an energy shock already weighing on the global economic outlook. As reported by The Economic Times, Trump renewed threats early Sunday to attack Iranian infrastructure if the key energy-shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He followed it later with another that said: "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" with no further explanation. Brent crude rose 1.9% to trade above $111 a barrel, as Trump's comments came after OPEC+ warned that damage to Mideast energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the conflict ends. The Islamic Republic's continued attacks damaged Kuwait's oil headquarters and shut down an Emirati petrochemicals plant, while fifteen ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission from Iran, according to semi-official Fars news agency reports.
Ryanair chief Michael O'Leary has issued a stark warning about potential flight disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 60-90 days. Speaking to ITV News, O'Leary stated that 5% to 10% of scheduled flights may be cancelled during May, June, and July if the conflict continues. The airline industry would be entering an 'unknown scenario' as airlines won't be able to choose which flights to cancel, depending on available jet fuel at each airport. O'Leary clarified that airlines won't have the option to select which routes to axe - reductions will be determined by which airports experience fuel supply problems, with only a few days' notice from jet fuel suppliers making disruption hard to manage. As per Ryanair, the airline industry's message is clear: "The sooner this war is over, the better, and the sooner we get oil supplies moving again, the better."
Jet fuel prices have surged, outpacing gasoline, as the Iran war has disrupted both oil supply and refining capacity. As reported by Mint, major US hubs including Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York are now seeing jet fuel prices average $4.88 per gallon—nearly double prewar levels. The UK has also been significantly affected, with the RAC reporting diesel prices at 184.2p per litre on April 1, representing a 29% increase since the war started on February 28. Average petrol prices have reached 153.7p per litre, a rise of 16% over the same period. O'Leary strongly advises travellers to lock in summer bookings early before airfares rise further, noting that 95-90% of flights will still operate despite the cancellation risk. The roughly $1-per-gallon increase in US gasoline pump prices probably drove the March consumer price index up 1%, the most since the post-pandemic inflation surge in 2022.
Ryanair has announced significant route cuts across Europe for 2026, with the airline cutting over 1 million seats in Spain, particularly at regional airports, due to a dispute over a 6.62% increase in airport charges by operator Aena. The airline is cutting over 1 million seats in Spain, with the summer 2026 schedule showing a 1.2 million seat reduction from regional airports including Tenerife North, Asturias, Jerez, Vitoria, and Zaragoza. Ryanair has also removed 20 routes and 1 million seats from Brussels and Charleroi for winter 2026/27, mainly due to a new Belgian aviation tax that will double the charge to €10 per passenger. Additionally, Ryanair has ended all six routes to and from the Azores, affecting about 400,000 fliers per year, and stopped operations at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport from March 27 due to environmental taxes. However, rival airlines including Vueling, Binter, Iberia and Wizz Air have stepped in to fill the gap, significantly reducing passenger inconvenience.
O'Leary strongly advises travellers to book summer holidays as quickly as they can despite the cancellation risks. According to Mint, he noted that 95-90% of flights will still operate despite the cancellation risk, making early booking a safer option than delaying. However, passengers affected by cancellations may not be eligible for refunds as airlines could cite extraordinary circumstances beyond their control. The airline has also cautioned that further French cancellations may be on the cards for 2026, with Ryanair's chief commercial officer Jason McGuinness revealing that "Ryanair will leave French regional airports in the summer of 2026." As per Ryanair, O'Leary urged UK travellers to book their summer holidays "as quickly as you can" as "accommodation prices are rising, air fares are rising into peak summer."
Despite potential disruptions, O'Leary assured that European passengers would not be left stranded. As reported by Mint, Ryanair operates numerous daily flights and will re-accommodate affected passengers. While travellers might face delays of one to two days, O'Leary emphasized that European operations would continue with reasonable confidence that original flights will operate and disruptions will be manageable. The airline has also announced that it will maintain services from London Stansted and Brussels to the southern French region of Occitania, despite cutting other French routes. O'Leary explained that "Airlines won't have that flexibility to choose routes, we have aircraft that are based at 95% of airports across Europe."
