Europe is experiencing its longest heat wave on record, with temperatures reaching 45.1°C in Andujar, Spain on June 22 marking Europe's highest temperature this summer. The heat wave has spread across Eastern Europe, with 41.7°C recorded in Cottbus, Germany, 41.9°C in the Czech Republic, and 40.5°C in Poland - its highest in 105 years since 1921. According to the World Health Organization, more than 1,300 excess deaths occurred in Europe between June 21-28, with over 1,000 deaths in France alone. The heat wave has persisted into July, with a third high-pressure system forming as a so-called "omega heat dome," raising the possibility of further record-breaking temperatures. Scientists confirm it was "unequivocally" caused by climate change, with Europe warming at twice the global average according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Chinese suppliers are reporting unprecedented sales growth as European consumers rush to purchase cooling products. According to Joybuy, the European and British arm of Chinese online retail giant JD.com, sales of air conditioner products have surged almost 40-fold compared with the first week of June. Chinese home appliance maker TCL reported that air conditioner sales in France rose more than 300% from the previous year, with 100% growth in Spain as well. The company has responded by shortening its production cycle from the usual 30 to 40 days to 10 days and is even considering chartered flight transport. Chinese local media have reported that domestic factories are running day and night to meet demand, with one Guangdong home appliance company seeing sales rise from about 80,000 units annually to more than 200,000 units this year through dealer channels alone. Midea has adapted its air conditioners to suit European conditions, with air conditioner sales in France, Spain, Germany and Britain up more than 70% compared with a year earlier, shipping 200,000 units to Europe this year, double the number it did last year.
Europe remains one of the world's most under-cooled developed markets, with household air conditioner penetration at only 20% compared to roughly 90% in the US, Japan, and Korea. According to the International Energy Agency, European household air conditioner penetration is expected to rise from 20% in 2020 to 50% by 2035. The growth is being driven by multiple factors including replacement demand as Europe tightens refrigerant rules, adoption beyond traditional southern European markets, and the shift toward more sophisticated cooling systems. Italy is already near 50% penetration, while the UK has doubled to around 7% in just three years from a very low base. The recent severe heat wave has intensified demand, with stocks of portable air conditioners piled up in warehouses in the UK, France, and Germany already being depleted.
The EU's revised F-gas Regulation, adopted in 2024, has fundamentally transformed Europe's cooling market from weather-sensitive to policy-backed. HFC quotas are being reduced in stepped phases—from 42.9 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2025–26 (around 48% below 2023 levels) to 21.7 million tonnes in 2027–29, and then to 9 million tonnes in 2030–32. By 2036, allowable supply falls to around 15% of historical levels, supporting the EU's target of reducing HFC consumption by 80% by 2030. From 2025, new commercial HVACR systems using refrigerants with global warming potential above 150 are prohibited, followed by restrictions on certain heat pumps in 2027 and many split air-conditioning systems in 2029.
The surge in air conditioner demand highlights Europe's growing dependence on Chinese products amid escalating trade tensions. China accounts for about 40% of global air conditioner exports, with Europe "very dependent" on Chinese products according to Natixis chief economist Alicia García-Herrero. The EU has imposed a flat ₹3 customs duty this month targeting low-cost Chinese goods from platforms like Temu and AliExpress, while threatening protectionist measures. EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic and Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao vowed to balance the relationship, with Sefcovic seeking "tangible results" on narrowing the $412 billion trade gap by October. Chinese social media has pointedly drawn comparisons to European heat wave conditions, with commentary asking whether Europeans would still favor "overcapacity" narratives if China stopped selling air conditioners. European residents are surprised by the lack of air conditioning infrastructure, with one Beijing resident noting that "my impression is that they're very advanced over there," expressing surprise about the low penetration rates.
