SpaceX (SPCX) began trading as a Nasdaq-100 constituent today, less than a month after going public, with Wall Street celebrating the milestone with coverage normally reserved for a moon landing. However, the stock dropped nearly 6% on its Nasdaq-100 inclusion day, with shares trading at $152, down 5% on the session even as the index inclusion prints. According to TheFly.com, Fourteen of the 19 targets clustered between $200 and $250, with this optimism following heavy institutional demand. BlackRock placed a $5 billion order ahead of the company's $2 trillion debut last month, demonstrating strong institutional confidence in the space technology company's prospects.
The initiation flood is real with nineteen firms opening coverage, eighteen of them bullish, with a median price target of $225 and a range from $131 to $800. According to TheFly.com, JPMorgan came in at $300, Deutsche Bank at $225, and Moffett Nathanson stood alone at $131 as the lone skeptic. The $669 spread reveals guesses rather than consensus, with prediction markets giving only a 19.5% probability that SPCX closes above $210 and just 50.5% probability of closing above $150. The nearly $700 gap between the highest and lowest targets leaves SpaceX's volatile stock at a crossroads as the company navigates its post-IPO market position.
Goldman Sachs has set a $205 price target on SpaceX (SPCX), representing 27.8% upside from current levels of approximately $160.42 per share. According to MarketWatch, the investment bank's target is considerably below Morgan Stanley's reported $300 target, but Goldman expects SpaceX to double sales this year and reach $352 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030. The bank projects free cash flow to turn positive by 2031, years before Morgan Stanley's reported 2035 timeline. Goldman sees SpaceX as a future AI infrastructure giant, with space-based computing becoming a critical part of its bull case.
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's AI sales to skyrocket from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, representing a roughly 100-fold jump. According to Reuters, citing the Financial Times, the bank projects total revenue to rise from $18.7 billion to $474 billion over the same period. These lofty numbers are attributed to SpaceX's tremendous platform that layers in launch capacity, satellite manufacturing, Starlink distribution, xAI and orbital data centers. The bank believes the intersection of orbital access and AI is driving "the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet," with the completion of Starship reducing space travel costs by 99%.
At the lower end of the range, MoffettNathanson's Julie Zhu set the Street-low target at $131, the sole holdout with a neutral rating that implies 18% downside. As reported by TheFly.com, Zhu takes exception to CEO Elon Musk's plans to launch data centers capable of delivering 100 gigawatts of compute annually by the end of 2029. The analyst questions Musk's plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of orbital compute by 2029, stating there is "simply no credible financial model that can support what is, at the time of this writing, a roughly $2 trillion valuation." SpaceX still needs to scale up Starship, prove space-based AI compute, keep Starlink growing, manage intensive capital needs and avoid regulatory setbacks. At this valuation, SpaceX needs almost flawless execution, massive margin expansion and no major capital-market hiccup.
