Samir Arora, Founder and Group CIO of Helios Capital Management, remains constructive on Indian equities as oil risks fade following recent developments in West Asia. As reported by ET Now, Arora stated that concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict have begun to recede, with oil prices expected to trade in a lower range than previously feared. "All we want is that there be peace and that oil flow easily and prices already showing that," Arora said, adding that the pressure on crude prices appears to be easing. He expects oil to trade in a range of 65 to 80 rather than the previously feared 80-90 levels. With oil prices stabilizing, Arora expects the broader market to benefit from improving global sentiment and easing oil price pressures. According to The Economic Times, Arora noted that reports suggest the framework agreement is largely complete and that markets are looking beyond the formal signing process, stating "As long as they do not fight, the rest of the world is happy."
Samir Arora, Founder and Group CIO of Helios Capital Management, delivered a sharp macro read at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit, challenging the prevailing bearish narrative about foreign investor exodus from Indian markets. As reported by The Economic Times, Arora stated that "Even foreigners have not completely left India" and emphasized that foreign institutional investors have "simply rotated their bets" rather than abandoning the market entirely. This represents a $200 billion rotation that has been largely overlooked by market participants, with FIIs shifting investments from top companies to other stocks while maintaining overall participation in Indian equities. The latest data reveals this rotation extends beyond headline figures, with 84 stocks delivering multibagger returns over two years while FIIs have actually increased their stakes in every single one of them since September 2024.
Arora maintains a bullish stance on the broader market for the next 12 months, particularly favoring mid- and small-cap companies while avoiding specific sectors. As reported by The Economic Times, he stated that "I do not like companies guiding for 5% growth and the stocks reacting well if they end up delivering 6% growth. I want the starting point of the companies to be 13%, 14%, 15%, 12%, something like that." He highlighted four or five new sectors separately including defence, alternative energy and data centres among emerging opportunities. Arora questions whether AI-driven productivity gains can coexist with strong growth across all technology providers, noting that "if OpenAI and Anthropic grow a lot, some part is natural new things they are doing, but some part is that they are substituting what somebody else was doing." He remains highly skeptical of foreign or domestic money sheltering in stagnant counters like consumer staples growing at 5% or IT companies guiding for mere 3% growth.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew ₹2.87 lakh crore from Indian equities between January and mid-June 2026, already surpassing the total outflows recorded in the entire year 2025. According to reports from Essential Business Intelligence, banking and financial services sectors bore the brunt of this pressure, accounting for 44% to 51% of total selling, with liquidations crossing ₹1.15 lakh crore. Large lenders including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank were hit hardest, with Arora attributing this to their status as the most liquid counters rather than structural balance sheet weakness. As reported by The Economic Times, Arora acknowledged that financials remain the largest sector exposure in his portfolio but noted he is not adding aggressively to the space, viewing banks and financial institutions as a stabilising force due to their reasonable valuations and relatively predictable earnings profile. He added that "Maybe some FII pressure on selling goes down and if that goes down, these financials will do okay. Better than what they are doing these days."
Buried beneath the massive FII exodus lies a counter-narrative that few are discussing: 84 stocks have delivered multibagger returns over the past two years while foreign investors have actually been raising their stakes in every single one of them since September 2024. According to data from ACE Equity, Midwest Energy tops the list with a 19,859% two-year return, alongside an FII stake that went from zero in September 2024 to over 12% by March 2026. Sumeet Industries delivered a 6,376% return, while CIAN Agro and Colab Platforms returned over 3,000% and 2,200% respectively - all stocks where foreign investors built positions from scratch. Among more widely-tracked names, GE Vernova T&D India saw FII holding surge from 6.82% to 20.39%, delivering a 216% two-year return, while Hitachi Energy India saw stakes rise from 5.10% to 11.68% alongside a 217% return. MTAR Technologies saw FII stakes more than double from 7.81% to 17.31%, returning 254% over two years.
According to Arora's analysis reported by Essential Business Intelligence, a swift market rebound would require only an 8 to 10% move to reverse the bearish narrative. He explains that a 10% market gain would increase the one-year performance by 10% and the two-year performance by 5%, with half of that 10% gain already materializing over just two recent sessions. The more reliable catalyst remains the domestic bid, which has remained resilient throughout the sell-off, while the RBI's policy push to attract FCNR(B) deposits could potentially draw in $60 billion to $70 billion. As reported by The Economic Times, Arora's preference continues to be growth-oriented businesses outside the traditional consensus trades, while maintaining financials as a core holding for portfolio stability. With oil prices retreating and the geopolitical outlook appearing more stable, crude-sensitive sectors may once again become attractive tactical opportunities, as Arora noted that "Broadly yes, possible, I agree." Market experts suggest that valuations have already de-rated from 20-22x P/E to 18x and are unlikely to fall much further, with the only real overhang being a sentiment shift "from extreme euphoria to extreme pessimism."
