Market participants are expected to focus on the Reserve Bank of India's record surplus transfer to the Centre as a key driver for next week's trading. According to reports from Zee News, the RBI announced a dividend payout of ₹2.87 lakh crore to the government for FY26 on Friday. Experts believe this large dividend transfer could provide fiscal support to the government and improve liquidity conditions, which may aid market sentiment in the near term. As market expert Sunil Subramaniam notes, FIIs continue to remain cautious on India and their flows play a major role in determining the performance of large private banks, with the RBI unlikely to cut rates in the near term and discussions emerging around possible rate hikes.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended the week with modest gains despite witnessing sharp intraday swings and range-bound trade throughout the sessions. As reported by Zee News, the Nifty rose 0.32 per cent during the week to settle at 23,719.30, while the Sensex gained 0.23 per cent to close at 75,415.35. The volatility was driven by mixed global signals, sectoral rotation, weakness in the Indian rupee, and concerns over inflation and interest rates. According to market expert Sunil Subramaniam, strong mutual fund inflows and growing retail participation have continued to support valuations in the broader market, though he warns this momentum could come under pressure if geopolitical tensions worsen or the RBI adopts a hawkish stance.
Geopolitical tensions in West Asia are likely to remain a key trigger for Dalal Street, with US President Donald Trump reportedly stating on Saturday that talks between Washington and Tehran were 'moving much closer' to a final agreement aimed at ending the conflict. According to Zee News, crude oil prices will also remain in focus next week, with Brent crude futures settling at $103.54 per barrel, rising 96 cents or 0.94 per cent, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures ending at $96.60 per barrel, up 25 cents or 0.26 per cent. As Sunil Subramaniam explains, energy stocks are 'too hot to handle' due to extreme volatility linked to crude price movements and geopolitical developments, while he remains cautious on information technology stocks due to persistent concerns around artificial intelligence impact.
Market expert Sunil Subramaniam advises caution amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and input cost pressures, while favoring select domestic themes. He expects volatility to remain elevated as crude prices, RBI policy decisions and Q1 earnings determine market direction in coming months. Among his preferred sectors, consumer durables and capital goods are his top investment themes, with capital goods companies relatively insulated from immediate geopolitical shocks and benefiting from continued government and private sector capex. For FMCG companies, he expects margin pressures to intensify due to rising prices of palm oil, fertilisers and other crude-linked raw materials, while many midcap and smallcap companies reported earnings growth of 30-40% in the previous quarter, helped partly by raw material cost increases not yet fully impacting margins.
