The Indian equity benchmarks are set to stage a gap up opening on Monday, May 4, as indicated by GIFT NIFTY futures. According to reports from Upstox, NIFTY futures at GIFT City in Ahmedabad advanced 154 points to 24,252 amid positive cues from Asian markets. The GIFT Nifty opened upside at 24,251 and touched an intraday high of 24,293 within minutes of the opening bell, with the index trading around 120 points higher at 24,265 by 7:45 AM. As per Livelong Wealth, the positive carryover reflects improving global sentiment, with Asian markets also trading in the green, setting the stage for a supportive start to domestic equities.
According to Moneycontrol technical analysis, the NIFTY 50 needs to break and sustain above 24,350 for a further move toward 24,600, while until then, consolidation may be seen with immediate crucial support at 23,800. The index showed a nice recovery from lower levels due to healthy buying interest, though it sustained below the 50-day EMA. Resistance based on pivot points: 24,072, 24,140, and 24,251, while support based on pivot points: 23,850, 23,781, and 23,670. As per Kotak Securities, if the index trades above 24,200/78,300, the chances of reaching 24,500/79,200 would increase, while below 23,800/76,700, selling pressure is likely to accelerate, with the market potentially slipping to 23,600–23,500/76,100-75,800.
Market participants will closely watch assembly election results for West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry which are underway. According to Upstox, early trends showed that BJP leading on 56 seats in West Bengal while Trinamool Congress was leading on 38 seats. In Tamil Nadu, DMK alliance was leading on 41 seats while AIADMK was ahead on 22 seats. In Assam, BJP was leading on 41 seats and in Kerala, UDF was ahead on 20 seats while LDF was leading on eight seats. The vote-counting day has finally arrived, with counting of votes beginning at 8:00 AM on May 4, with early trends emerging by afternoon and final results known by evening.
Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth ₹8,047.86 crore on Thursday while domestic institutional investors bought stocks worth ₹3,487 crore, as per NSE data reported by Upstox. For the month of April, FIIs offloaded stocks worth ₹60,847 crore, data from National Securities Depository showed. This continued foreign selling pressure has been a key factor in the recent market weakness.
According to Moneycontrol weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,500 strike (with 69.51 lakh contracts), which can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. The NIFTY Put-Call ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.98 on April 30, compared to a 1.04 previous session, indicating traders are selling more Put options than Call options. The fear gauge, India VIX, jumped 5.86 percent to 18.46, signalling some discomfort for bulls and remaining above long-term moving averages. From a volatility perspective, India VIX remains elevated at around 18.4, while not at extreme levels, it continues to signal underlying caution.
