India's stock market showed a clear split on Friday, with the benchmark Nifty 50 falling for the second consecutive day while mid and small-cap indices surged to new record highs. The Nifty 50 closed down 0.62% at 24,176, holding support around its 21-day moving average near 24,140 but meeting resistance between 24,330 and 24,350. This contrasted sharply with the Midcap index, which closed slightly down by 0.15% at 61,911 after reaching a new record, and the Smallcap index, which hit a new peak and extended its rally for a fourth straight session. Over the last month, the Midcap index rose about 4-5% and the Smallcap index climbed 6-7%, far exceeding the Nifty 50's modest 1-2% gain, as money moved into smaller companies offering higher growth potential.
As reported by Latent View Analytics, Nifty once again faced resistance near the 20-week EMA, failing to reclaim the average for the third straight week. The recent pullback lost steam near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 26,373 to 22,182. The index remains below rising trendline resistance, with consolidation around 24,500 adding uncertainty. According to Tradebulls Securities, the highest Call OI at 24,500 signals strong resistance, while the highest Put OI at 24,000 points to solid support. Heavier call writing versus puts reflects caution, with participants hedging or anticipating limited upside. Economic Times reports that heavy call writing is visible around the 24,200 strike, with the index potentially witnessing further correction towards 24,050–24,000 if it sustains below this level. Technical experts are now watching key levels, with nearby support at 24,000-23,950, and resistance around 24,330-24,350 and a bigger hurdle at 24,500-24,600.
Sector performance reflected the market's contrasting performance, with the Nifty IT sector leading gains helped by positive global tech trends and demand for digital services, trading at a P/E ratio of 35-40. In contrast, the PSU Bank index (P/E 10-15) saw selling after a large rally, with concerns about current prices in some areas, while Financial services showed mixed results with major banks stable but other areas facing pressure. This week, the Nifty 50 gained 0.74%, while the total market value of BSE-listed companies grew by over ₹10 lakh crore. Key contributors included Mahindra & Mahindra (market cap ₹2.7 lakh crore, P/E ~25-30), Adani Ports (market cap ₹2.6 lakh crore, P/E ~40-45), HDFC Bank (market cap ₹11 lakh crore, P/E ~18-20), and Asian Paints (market cap ₹2.5 lakh crore, P/E ~50-55), contrasting with declines in market value for SBI, Bharti Airtel, and TCS.
According to technical analysis, Bank Nifty has broken out of its falling trendline, signalling improving momentum. As reported by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, Bank Nifty has also broken out of its falling trendline, with resistance near 56,500 remaining a key hurdle. Unless crossed decisively, the index may face pressure at higher levels. On the downside, support at 55,000 and the previous swing low of 54,200 should provide a cushion in the week ahead. The PSU Bank index (P/E 10-15) saw selling after a large rally, with concerns about current prices in some areas, while Financial services showed mixed results with major banks stable but other areas facing pressure.
According to multiple technical analysts, traders may adopt different strategies based on the current market position. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers recommends buy-on-dips as long as Nifty holds above 23,900–24,000, with Nifty Futures going long only after the index closes above 24,400 and stop loss at 24,200. Tradebulls Securities suggests sell Nifty 50 May Futures below 24,200 with stop loss at 24,310 and target of 24,000. For Bank Nifty, fresh longs above 56,500 with targets of 56,800–57,300 are recommended. If Nifty sustains below 24,200, the index could witness further correction towards 24,050–24,000, while a move back above 24,200 may trigger a near-term recovery rally towards 24,350–24,400. Looking ahead, analysts expect the market to move sideways to positive, with the Nifty gradually recovering towards the 24,300-24,500 range, but clear upward movement depends on breaking resistance levels around 24,350-24,400 and crucially, the 24,500-24,600 zone.
