The Nifty remained locked in a choppy trading range on Thursday but managed to end the session at 24,396, closing above its key 20-day and 200-day daily exponential moving averages (DEMAs). According to Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the index has now closed above both these moving averages for the second consecutive session, keeping the near-term setup constructive for the bulls. The 20-day DEMA stands at 24,363, while the 200-day DEMA is placed at 24,385. The ability to sustain above these levels will remain important for the index in the near term, with the index showing signs of underlying strength after finding buying interest near its support zone. The index has formed a Hammer candlestick near the support area, indicating rejection of lower levels and suggesting that buyers are actively defending this zone.
As reported by HDFC Securities, the immediate support is placed at 24,265-24,200, followed by the psychological level of 24,000. On the upside, 24,500-24,600 remain the key resistance zones to watch, with a sustained close above 24,500 being the key trigger for the coming session, potentially opening the way towards 24,650-24,700. Sustained trading above 24,250 could keep the short-term bias positive, while a decisive close below that would weaken the setup. A sustained move above 24,750 could strengthen the bullish setup, while a break below 24,250 could lead to increased selling pressure and bring the 4,000 level into focus. The market is expected to consolidate further with a negative bias amid weakening bullish momentum, although the broader structure remains positive as the index continues to sustain above all key moving averages.
Technical analysts are closely monitoring the Nifty's position near its 200-day exponential moving average as the index tests critical support levels. Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlights that the Nifty has been testing support around its 200-day exponential moving average near 24,385 and has not yet given a decisive closing breakdown below this level. However, he cautions that a sustained close below the 200-DEMA would confirm further deterioration and could accelerate the corrective move towards 24,200-24,000. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, flags that the underlying trend of Nifty remains choppy with weak bias, with crucial support placed at 24,300 levels. Shetti emphasizes that as long as Nifty sustains above 24,200-24,300 levels there is a possibility of bounce back from the lower levels, while immediate resistance is placed at 24,500 levels.
Market breadth remained weak on August 12, with about 1,764 shares declining against 1,281 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a sharp rise in crude oil prices have kept global markets cautious, limiting risk appetite and creating headwinds for Indian markets. After breaking out of nearly 70 sessions of consolidation, the Nifty's momentum has weakened, and the index has slipped back into its broader 23,000-24,600 range, indicating the need for a fresh trigger. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, remains flat at 0.92 on August 13, compared to previous session. The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
Bank Nifty closed at 57,886, up 440 points or 0.77% on August 12, showing strong recovery after breaking out of a downward consolidation pattern. The index has managed to hold above its short- and medium-term moving averages, keeping the broader structure positive, with the index outperforming the broader market led by strong buying in frontline PSU banks during the latter half of the session. According to Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,300-58,600 zone, where repeated supply has emerged over the past several sessions. A sustained close above 58,600 would be an important technical trigger and could accelerate the upmove towards 59,200-59,500, followed by the psychological 60,000 mark. On the downside, 57,300-57,000 has emerged as the immediate demand zone, where the 50-DMA is placed on the daily chart, with immediate support at 56,900-57,100, followed by 56,000.
