India's equity benchmark Nifty 50 plunged to an 18-month low on Thursday, closing 1.64% lower at 22,231.80 - its lowest closing level since 7 April 2025. The index had hit an intraday low of 22,179, just below its previous 52-week low of 22,182, marking a 15.7% decline from its 52-week high. The BSE Sensex 30 closed 1.44% down at 71,593.24, its lowest level since 13 February 2024. According to The Economic Times, the slide into its ninth straight week has deepened concerns over further market losses, with surging oil prices threatening to keep inflation elevated and trigger more rate hikes. At current levels, the NSE Nifty is on course to log its longest (9th) weekly losing streak since April 2001, with the index having declined 9.5% or 2,339 points in the last nine straight weeks. A weekly close below 22,422 would confirm the 9th straight weekly loss for the Nifty.
Foreign portfolio investors sold equities amounting to ₹12,943 crore on Thursday, marking their highest single-day selling since 29 May. In September and October so far, FIIs have net sold shares worth ₹57,979 crore, as reported by The Economic Times. The selling was particularly concentrated in index heavyweights, with GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity selling ₹1,839 crore and Goldman Sachs Trust II Goldman Sachs selling ₹6,831 crore in ITC through bulk deals. GQG Partners International Opportunities Fund sold shares worth ₹9,395 crore in a separate block deal. Rising global bond yields are prompting foreign institutional investors to move to safer assets and ditch riskier assets such as emerging market equities. Foreign portfolio investors extended their selling streak to 10 consecutive days, while the rupee remained under pressure against the USD, adding to challenges facing domestic equities.
Interest rate-sensitive sectors pulled down the index significantly, with Nifty Realty down 3.16%, Nifty Auto 2.49% lower, and the Nifty consumption index down 2.15%. The selling pressure intensified after the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, adding to concerns over further rate hikes impacting long-term growth prospects. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, notes that the 25 basis points rate hike by the RBI continues to weigh on sentiment, raising concerns over tighter financial conditions. Brent crude surged 4.8% to $104 a barrel on Thursday amid geopolitical uncertainties, with analysts warning that the biggest risk is crude oil staying higher for longer amid the ongoing West Asia war. The pressure has now spread beyond large-caps, with midcaps and smallcaps also weakened, showing that the decline has spread beyond large-cap names.
Technical analysts warn of continued weakness with Ponmudi flagging that the Nifty chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, signalling the continued dominance of sellers. The 22,500–22,600 zone acts as immediate resistance, while 22,200–22,180 remains the crucial support zone. A decisive break below this range could accelerate the decline toward the psychological 22,000 mark. Hariselvan Radhakrishnan of HST Wealth also sees the 22,000-mark as a key psychological support, with the index needing to sustain above 22,400 to extend gains toward 22,550–22,600. Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities notes that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 28 and remains in the oversold zone, while India VIX surged 10.01% to settle at 15.28, signalling sharp rise in nervousness across the market. Options data reflects caution with total Put open interest at 13.85 crore against Call open interest of 22.42 crore, showing a put-call ratio of 0.62. V K Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments remains cautious on large-caps due to sustained FII selling, noting that with the US 10-year bond yield above 5.3%, FIIs are likely to sell on every rally, keeping Nifty large-caps under pressure for some more time.
