Indian equity markets extended their losing streak for the fourth consecutive week, with the Nifty closing at 23,897.70, up 24.25 points or 0.10% for the session, though declining 1% for the week. According to latest reports, Sensex opened at 76,657.02 and was trading at 76,643.32, up 490.46 points or 0.64% as of 9:21 AM. At the time of closing, Sensex settled 362.57 points or 0.48% higher at 76,515.43, while Nifty 50 was up 24.25 points or 0.10% to 23,897.70. The benchmarks lost 1.2% and 1% respectively for the week, marking their longest losing streak in five months. Twelve of the 16 major sectors declined for the week, with small-caps gaining 0.1% and mid-caps falling 1.5%.
The sustained decline was attributed to soaring crude oil prices and sluggish performance of leading stocks, with renewed geopolitical tensions adding to investor caution. As per Axis Direct, Brent crude jumped about 7% this week as intensifying U.S.-Iran hostilities stoked inflation concerns and drove global bond yields higher, pressuring risk assets. Market analysts identified the underperformance of heavyweight stocks as a primary concern, with the Nifty remaining range-bound between 23,600 and 24,400 levels. Pankaj Pandey, head of fundamental research at ICICI Direct, noted that FCNR(B) inflows have helped address currency depreciation concerns, potentially supporting stronger foreign portfolio investor inflows ahead. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $95.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 26 cents to $91.56, with both benchmarks set for their highest weekly gains since the week ended July 20.
Asian markets showed mixed performance, with Japan rising 1.3%, Hong Kong advancing 1.7%, South Korea gaining 1.6%, and Taiwan rising 1.5%, while China declined 0.3%, as reported by The Economic Times. In the Indian market, most sectoral indices traded in the red with Nifty Oil & Gas emerging as the major laggard, dropping 1.34% in early morning trade. Nifty Pharma and Healthcare traded in green, while BSE stocks like Sun Pharma, Infosys, Power Grid, TCS, Tech Mahindra and ICICI Bank traded in the positive territory. On the downside, Indi Go, Asian Paint, M&M, Maruti, Tata Steel, Eternal among others were major losers. The auto index lost 4% on concerns that sales growth could slow amid a high base and potentially weaker rural demand following a rainfall deficit, with Maruti falling 5.1% and Mahindra and Mahindra losing 4.9%. In commodity markets, Brent crude was trading higher at USD 95.67/barrel, while gold slipped 0.43% to $4,488.54 per ounce after touching its highest since August 28.
Market volatility indicators showed some improvement, with Nifty's Volatility Index (VIX) falling 5.79% to 14.32 on Friday, indicating reduced investor nervousness, according to The Economic Times. However, foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth ₹3,112 crore, while domestic institutions were buyers to the tune of ₹8,930 crore. Technical analysts noted that the Nifty broke below key moving averages while forming 'lower highs and lower lows', with resistance observed at 24,000-24,140 and support at 23,720-23,570 levels. Market expert Ajay Bagga noted that the simultaneous surge in the US dollar index and Brent crude typically forces foreign institutional investors to de-risk, which will likely accelerate FII/FPI capital outflows. The rupee strengthened 2 paise to close at 94.49 against the US dollar, providing some relief for domestic markets.
Market analysts expect the Nifty to remain range-bound in the absence of fresh triggers, with Rajesh Palviya from Axis Direct noting that the near-term outlook remains cautious as long as the Nifty trades below the 24,450 resistance level. He added that immediate support is placed at 24,200, and a breach of this level could accelerate selling towards the key 24,000 mark. On the upside, a sustained move above 24,450 would improve sentiment and open the door for a recovery towards 24,600. According to Axis Direct, investors will closely track global market trends, crude oil prices and the performance of technology stocks, which are likely to set the tone for domestic markets in the near term. The technical outlook remains cautious with resistance at 24,000-24,140 and support at 23,720-23,570 levels, indicating continued volatility in the near term.
