The Nifty closed 0.32% higher last week, with the Nifty 50 index settling at 23,719.30 points and the Sensex ending over 0.3% higher at 75,415.35 points. According to reports from The Economic Times, the 50-stock index edged lower by 64.60 points, or 0.27%, to close at 23,719.30 on Friday. Technical analysts suggest the index is in an indecisive range, with Rupak De from LKP Securities noting that Nifty failed to close above the crucial 23,800 resistance level for the second consecutive session despite a positive RSI crossover. The index is expected to trade within a broader range of 23,500-24,000 with a positive bias, as reported by Centrum Finverse. However, Vinod Nair from Geojit Investments Limited noted that "markets remain range-bound, with strong DII inflows cushioning the downside and persistent FII selling limiting the upside," adding that the market is in a buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies pattern.
Global factors including Iran-US tensions and US bond yields are significantly influencing market sentiment, with cautious optimism emerging over easing tensions. As reported by The Economic Times, Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf met Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts, while US markets closed higher with the Dow 30 gaining 294.04 points to 50,579.70 and the S&P 500 up 27.75 points to 7,473.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 276.31 points, or 0.55%, to a record close on Thursday, setting up a firm start for Asia-Pacific markets. However, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.201% on Wednesday, amid growing uncertainty over Middle East conflict outcomes. According to Geojit Investments, "globally, the AI investment theme remained the primary driver, while domestically financial stocks led the gains, with selective interest in autos and consumption."
Foreign institutional investors have continued their selling pressure, with FIIs selling domestic shares worth ₹4,440.47 crore on Friday while domestic institutional investors were net buyers at ₹6,003.53 crore. According to The Economic Times, FIIs have offloaded domestic equities worth ₹2.22 lakh crore in 2026, remaining net sellers for the third successive month. Global equity funds witnessed outflows of $12.05 billion during the week, marking the second weekly withdrawal, while technology funds continued to attract inflows of $6.94 billion for the seventh straight week. As noted by Geojit Investments, "overall, markets remain range-bound, with strong DII inflows cushioning the downside and persistent FII selling limiting the upside."
Global benchmark crude oil prices remain a key factor, with Brent crude futures for July and US West Texas Intermediate futures for June advancing around 2% in early Asia trading after three straight sessions of declines. As reported by The Economic Times, the Indian rupee rallied to close above the 96-per-dollar mark for the first time in a week, closing at 95.69 per dollar after the Reserve Bank of India sold $2-3 billion on Thursday and intervened again on Friday. The central bank's aggressive interventions helped arrest the currency's slide from 94.50 to nearly 97. According to Geojit Investments, concerns over extreme oil scenarios were downplayed, with the firm noting that "the report is based on extreme cases and crude oil prices are not expected to reach those levels."
Technically, the Nifty remains stuck in a consolidation band with 23,500 acting as immediate support and 23,800 as the first hurdle. As per Geojit Investments, "a breakout would need two catalysts: durable de-escalation in West Asia and Brent stabilizing below $85." The firm expects the Nifty 50 index to move in the range of 23,500 to 23,800 if tensions related to the Strait of Hormuz in West Asia remain unchanged, but any improvement through talks between Iran and the US will only push the market towards higher levels. Until then, strong DII flows should limit sharp downsides, but FII outflows and oil volatility will cap quick rallies. Traders should keep an eye on US-Iran diplomacy headlines and next week's domestic macro data.
