The Nifty closed at 23,450 on Wednesday, September 23, marking a 0.50% gain and breaking the previous session's consolidation pattern. According to market reports, the index had been consolidating over the last 5 sessions, with Tuesday's bearish candle signalling selling pressure at higher levels. However, Wednesday's session saw a strong recovery driven by falling crude oil prices and diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, with the index forming a bullish candle that signalled renewed buying interest at current levels. The index touched an intraday high of 23,466.90 before ending the day within striking distance of 23,450, recording its highest close in nearly two weeks.
The Nifty has faced significant pressure over the past year, shedding around 5% in the last 1 month and down 11% year-to-date, with the index declining over 12% or more than 3,200 points from its record high of 26,373 in January. As per LiveMint, the benchmark has been weighed down by soaring US bond yields and the US dollar (USD), rising crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and escalating US-Iran tensions. Vinod Nair from Geojit Investments Limited noted that against a geopolitically charged backdrop, investors closely tracked proceedings at the UN General Assembly for signals on the US–Iran conflict and US–China discussions. Mayank Jain from Share.Market by PhonePe highlighted that elevated crude prices remain a key concern for India's import-dependent economy, adding short-term pressure on inflation, domestic currency levels, and overall market sentiment.
The market rally was led by metals and financial stocks, which closed higher after UBS reported that CRIF Bureau's August early delinquency data showed stable to improving asset quality across most retail loan categories. As reported by LiveMint, Nifty Midcap 100 index surged 0.70% and Nifty Smallcap index gained 0.90%, indicating broad-based strength across market segments. However, Nifty IT was the sole sectoral decliner, weighed down by demand and earnings concerns despite AI-heavy Asian technology markets advancing. Brent crude declined 0.6% to $98.68 per barrel, as markets assessed efforts to restore oil flows disrupted by Middle East conflict. According to market experts, heavyweight sectors including IT, oil and gas, FMCG and banking would have an important role in any market-wide recovery.
Wednesday's price action resulted in the formation of a bullish candle, though the entire trading range remained within Tuesday's bearish engulfing candle, resulting in an inside candle formation. The absence of follow-up selling after Tuesday's bearish setup is a positive development, with the index also reclaiming its 8-DEMA after slipping below this short-term moving average in the previous session. Resistance is placed at 23,489–23,600, where a sustained move above Tuesday's high could strengthen the recovery and pave the way for a test of 23,600. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 23,350, followed by 23,285, with a break below 23,285 potentially dragging the index back towards the lower end of the large bearish candle formed on September 15. Vinit Bolinjkar from Master Capital Services identified the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 24,000 as an important hurdle, stating that a decisive breakout and sustained move above this level could improve market sentiment and potentially open the path towards 25,000.
Foreign portfolio investors stepped in to sell shares worth ₹3,810 crore on Tuesday, adding to the pressure on domestic equities. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking noted that continued foreign outflows and elevated global bond yields remained an overhang for domestic equities. The derivatives structure has also turned cautious, with the put-call ratio standing at 0.99, indicating a slight preference for downside protection. Call concentration around 23,400–23,500 is likely to act as immediate overhead supply, while put positioning around 23,300 and 23,100 provides downside cushioning. Market experts emphasize that a reversal in FII flows would be crucial for the index to sustain an upward move towards 25,000.
The Nifty could reclaim the 25,000 mark this year, but experts emphasize that achieving this target requires a combination of global macroeconomic conditions, foreign investor flows and corporate earnings. Vinit Bolinjkar noted that 25,000 on the Nifty is achievable this year, particularly because the index already touched a record high of 26,373 back in January. The recovery would require a moderation in crude oil prices and US bond yields, a reversal in FII flows and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings to collectively help the benchmark close the gap. Vishnu Kant Upadhyay from Master Capital Services highlighted that upcoming quarterly earnings will be crucial in determining whether the market can build a sustainable recovery, with cooling bond yields, stability in crude prices and revival in FII buying providing further support. The experts pointed to similar triggers for a move towards 25,000: lower US bond yields, greater stability in crude oil prices, renewed FII buying and stronger corporate earnings. A decisive move above 24,000 would be the first step towards the 25,000 target, with the index needing to overcome technical and macroeconomic hurdles around current levels.
