The Indian stock market's recovery momentum has stalled as Nifty 50 lost 0.73% or 175 points this week, closing at 23,997.55 points, while BSE Sensex declined 1% or 750 points, ending at 76,913.50 points as of the week ended Thursday, April 30. This represents a significant reversal from the previous week's strong performance, with the market ending its final week of April with losses amid bearish investor sentiment. The benchmark indices were subject to significant selling pressure throughout the week due to weak global cues, elevated crude oil prices, and a weaker Indian rupee hitting an all-time low of 95.322 against the US dollar. According to Upstox, investors had a stock-specific approach at the start of the week based on Q4 earnings releases, but dynamic developments on the US-Iran conflict front soon turned sentiment cautious as foreign investors resumed their selling streak.
Major sectoral indices ended lower after intraday trading, with Nifty Bank losing 2.6%, Nifty IT declining 2.6%, and Nifty Financial Services down 2.2% as of the week ended April 30. However, Nifty Oil & Gas gained 2.5%, Nifty Energy rose 1.9%, and Nifty Pharma increased 1.2% during the same period. Among individual stocks, Sun Pharmaceuticals gained 7.6%, Coal India surged 6.8%, Reliance Industries rose 6.5%, Adani Enterprises gained 4.7%, and ONGC shares were up 4.6% in the week ended Thursday, April 30. Conversely, Axis Bank shares lost 7.4%, Shriram Finance declined 7.1%, ICICI Bank dropped 6.3%, HCL Technologies fell 6.1%, and IndiGo shares lost 5.7%. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was down 0.3% closing 0.98% lower at 59,784.85 points, while Nifty Smallcap 100 index gained 1.6% despite closing 0.48% lower at 18,007.15 points.
Foreign investors sold ₹8,047.86 crore worth of assets from the capital markets segment this week, while domestic investors were net buyers, purchasing a total of ₹3,487.10 crore across the exchanges in a single day. The Indian rupee dropped to a fresh record low of 95.322 against the US dollar during Thursday's trading session, with higher US greenback demand among global investors. Global benchmark crude oil prices surged to near $125 per barrel on Thursday's trading session, compared to $118 per barrel levels at the previous market close, according to commodity exchange data. The Nifty India VIX witnessed a 0.7% drop on a weekly basis as of the stock market close on Thursday, but due to selling pressure, the India VIX was up nearly 6% in a single day on April 30. Market breadth remained narrow with opportunities more likely to be sector-specific rather than broad-based.
Technical analysts are closely monitoring key resistance and support levels for the Nifty's continued momentum. Analysts noted resistance near 24,300-24,700 with the index showing a strong bullish Marubozu candle on the weekly chart indicating robust buying action. Market expert Rajesh Palviya noted a strong bullish Marubozu candle on the weekly chart, advising a 'buy on decline' strategy as Nifty holds above 24,100, with potential rallies towards 24,600–24,700 if it breaks 24,400. However, analysts suggest the Nifty is entering a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, with a trading band expected between 23,400 and 24,500, requiring a breakout to revive directional strength. Recent technical analysis from The Economic Times suggests buying Nifty futures around 24,106 with upside targets at 24,500-24,600, while maintaining caution due to ongoing volatility. Technical signals indicate a shift from a corrective phase to a sustained uptrend, with improving momentum and selective buying supporting this move.
Despite the recent recovery, market experts are flagging significant concerns about future earnings growth. Rahul Arora of Ashika Institutional Equities warned that making new highs of 27,000–27,500 could be difficult, with the next four to five months likely to be choppy. His comments suggest the recent rally—from around 22,000–22,500 to 24,500—was somewhat surprising and not fully backed by fundamentals. Earnings growth expectations for the Nifty, which were earlier pegged at 15–17%, could now be trimmed by 5–6 percentage points, bringing them closer to 10–12%. With a large part of the index expected to deliver only moderate growth, achieving mid-teen earnings expansion would be challenging. The main pressure will come in Q1, with a possible spillover into Q2, as the real impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions is likely to show up in the June quarter, with possible spillover into the September quarter. All eyes now remain on any potential relief or signals over the weekend related to a peace deal or easing signals between the two nations at war.
Market experts remain cautiously optimistic about the recovery's sustainability while flagging significant challenges ahead. Ajit Mishra from Mint noted that the Nifty's move to snap its four-month losing streak signals underlying resilience, but sustainability will be tested by external headwinds. He expects markets to remain range-bound with a slight positive bias, supported by domestic liquidity but weighed by gradual earnings recovery. Shrikant Chouhan from Kotak Securities indicated that the Nifty 50 can potentially move towards 25,000 and may even cross that level, but for the rally to sustain beyond 24,700, crude oil prices need to cool off to around $70–75 per barrel. Technical analyst Vinay Rajani sees the Nifty moving towards 24,800, highlighting JSW Steel for a breakout, Jubilant FoodWorks for a reversal pattern, and Marico for its resilience. Both experts from CNBC-TV18 and BNP Paribas indicate that while markets have shown resilience so far, the combination of earnings downgrades, narrow leadership, and geopolitical uncertainty could keep returns capped and volatility elevated in the coming months, with investor focus likely to shift back to geopolitical risks once the earnings season concludes.
