The Indian stock market benchmark indices are expected to open higher on Monday, with Gift Nifty trading around 24,476 level, a premium of nearly 108 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. According to reports from Mint, this positive trend on Gift Nifty indicates a favorable start for the Indian benchmark index. The optimistic opening follows a strong rally on Friday, where the Sensex surged 504.86 points, or 0.65%, to close at 78,493.54, while the Nifty 50 settled 156.80 points, or 0.65%, higher at 24,353.55, closing above the 24,300 level. The Nifty 50 bounced back with 0.65 percent gains on April 17 amid rising hopes of a potential US-Iran deal, but it could not close above the previous day's high of the 24,400 zone.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 index formed a strong bullish candle alongside the previous session's red candle, indicating a strong uptrend in the market with minimal corrections in between. The index stayed above the 50-day EMA (near 24,200) for the third consecutive session and also closed above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level (of the major correction from the February high to the April low - 24,270), both of which are crucial for further upside. The RSI climbed to 57.11, while the MACD, with a bullish crossover, moved closer to the zero line with a rising histogram, indicating positive momentum. For a further upward journey toward 24,700–24,800 (the 100- and 200-day EMAs), the index must deliver a convincing and sustained close above 24,400, which remains a crucial hurdle and also corresponds to the upper range of the large bearish gap from March 9. Immediate support is placed at 24,100, followed by 23,900 as a crucial level, according to experts. As per HDFC Securities, the Nifty is currently placed at the hurdle of 24,400 levels and a sustainable move above this resistance could open the next upside towards 24,800 in the near term.
The Sensex formed a bullish candle on weekly charts and is holding a higher bottom formation, which is largely positive. According to Kotak Securities, the index is currently trading comfortably above short-term averages, supporting a further uptrend. Key support zones for Sensex are identified at 77,500 and 77,000, while resistance areas are placed at 79,500 and 79,800. The analysts note that below 77,000, sentiment could change, and Sensex may retest the level of 76,000 - 75,800. From a derivatives perspective, PCR stands near 1.02, reflecting a balanced to slightly positive bias. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rose to 1.09 on April 17, compared to a 0.98 previous session, indicating traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment.
Bank Nifty index ended 479.30 points, or 0.85%, higher at 56,565.70 on Friday and gained 1.17% for the week, forming a bullish candle on the weekly chart for the second consecutive week. The index has been consolidating within the 56,830–55,800 range for the last three sessions and has been holding above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level (of the fall from the February high to the April low at 55,800) for three consecutive days. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,900 - 57,000 zone, with any sustainable move above this zone potentially extending the up move towards 57,400, followed by 57,800 in the short term. Resistance based on pivot points: 56,646, 56,832, and 57,132, while support based on pivot points: 56,045, 55,859, and 55,558. According to the weekly options data, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.14 crore contracts), which can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term, followed by the 24,800 strike (83.09 lakh contracts) and 24,500 strike (64.8 lakh contracts).
The overall market structure remains positive, favoring a buy-on-dips approach with the support base now shifting higher to around 24,000. The fear gauge, India VIX, extended its decline for the third consecutive session and moved below both short-term and medium-term moving averages, falling 4.87 percent to 17.2 on Friday, declined 8.73 percent for the week, and is down over 38 percent for the current month, signalling increasing comfort for bulls. A continued decline toward 15 zone could provide major support to bullish sentiment. The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) rising to 1.09 indicates traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor, which needs to be permanently opened for correction in oil prices and a sustainable market rally. The RSI continues to sustain above the 55 level, reflecting strength, while momentum indicators and oscillators continue to show strength. As per HDFC Securities, the formation of a long bull candle signals continued strength, with key resistance seen around 25,000 to 25,170 levels, with targets set at 25,250 and 25,500.
