The Nifty 50 has rallied over 800 points, or 3.5%, in the last three sessions and is currently trading near the 23,989 mark, extending gains for the third consecutive trading session. The benchmark touched an intraday high of 24,011.40 on June 15 but witnessed profit booking at higher levels and eventually closed 0.98% higher. On Tuesday, the index climbed to an intraday high of 23,977.80, rising over 0.5% from its previous close, while the Bank Nifty index also advanced to a high of 57,399.70 before witnessing some profit booking. The uptrend has been driven by broad-based buying across sectors, with investors awaiting the formal signing of the final agreement aimed at ending the conflict in the Gulf region. On the weekly options expiry session, the benchmark index remained confined within the previous day's trading range, opening with a positive gap and gradually moving higher through the session, although buying momentum remained measured. According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research and Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, "Indian equities are expected to maintain their gradual positive momentum, supported by improving geopolitical developments, a revival in foreign institutional participation and a further fall in crude oil prices."
Despite the recent gains, the Nifty 50 has struggled to decisively breach the crucial 24,000 level, with heavy call writing witnessed across this strike price for today's weekly expiry. According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, meaningful call writing is witnessed across 24,000 and 24,100 strikes, while on the put side, substantial open interest is seen at 23,900, followed by 23,800 strikes. The index touched an intraday high of 24,011.40 on June 15 but faced resistance near the psychologically important 24,000 mark, indicating that traders remain cautious ahead of the weekly expiry. Sumeet Bagadia from Choice Broking noted that the Nifty 50 continues to trade above its 20-Day EMA and has broken out of the falling channel pattern, indicating that the broader recovery structure remains intact. Among Nifty constituents, HCLTech and Tata Consumer Products emerged as the top gainers, while Hindalco Industries and JSW Steel were among the biggest laggards.
The 23,900-23,880 zone will act as crucial support for the Nifty 50 index, while resistance lies in the 24,080-24,100 zone, according to Shah from SBI Securities. On the downside, if the index slips below 23,900, then the next support is placed in the 23,560-23,600 zone. In the event of a surge above 24,100, Shah expects the Nifty 50 to experience an extension of the rally towards 24,250 and 24,400 levels. Bagadia from Choice Broking identified immediate support for Nifty 50 at 23,700-23,750, while resistance is seen at 24,000-24,050. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said a sustained move above the 24,000-24,100 zone could pave the way for a rally towards 24,500 in the near term, with immediate support seen around 23,800. Hitesh Rathi of Angel One believes a decisive breakout above the 24,000-24,150 resistance zone is necessary for bulls to regain complete control, while Rupak De of LKP Securities expects immediate resistance placed in the 24,070-24,200 zone and support at 23,900, followed by 23,700. According to the latest analysis, a move above 24,100 could trigger a rally towards 24,250 and 24,400 levels.
Market participation remained muted over the past two weeks, including during Friday's advance. Open interest data showed Nifty open interest fell 2.2% as the index gained nearly 2%, indicating that short covering contributed to the move. Even so, the breakout above the recent trading range and the strong close provide a constructive near-term setup for the benchmark. Technical indicators have improved following Friday's rally. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has moved above 50, while the weekly RSI has rebounded after finding support near 40. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also close to generating a bullish crossover. Monday's trading session will be important in determining whether the breakout can sustain, with a move above the 50-day moving average strengthening the case for continued upside momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices continued to consolidate within a narrow range for a second straight session, although they managed to end the day in positive territory. The latest market setup suggests Indian equity indices are expected to extend gains on improving West Asia geopolitical cues.
The banking benchmark Bank Nifty has consistently outperformed frontline indices over the past couple of sessions and continued its positive momentum on Thursday by closing in the green at 55,177, up 76 points despite facing pressure at higher levels. On the daily timeframe, Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with an upper wick, signalling positive momentum. According to Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, "The 55,500–55,600 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance for the index. A sustained breakout above 55,600 could trigger a sharp upside rally towards 56,200, followed by 56,600 in the short term." On the downside, the 54,800–54,700 zone is expected to provide immediate support and act as a cushion against any corrective move. Banking stocks have played a crucial role in helping the Nifty defend key support levels and drive the recent recovery. Rathi said any revival in momentum within the banking index could provide the next trigger for the benchmark to move higher, with the 23,800-23,780 zone, which coincides with the 50-DEMA and the previous session's low, as the immediate support area.
Asian markets witnessed a massive rally on Friday, June 12, following the breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 3.4% while the Topix gained 1.8%, with South Korea's Kospi jumping 7.01% at open, while the Kosdaq surged 3.25%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening. The rally was driven by lower oil prices, tech sector momentum from SpaceX IPO, and a rebounding US market after Wall Street's strong performance on Thursday. Crude oil prices extended losses after US President Donald Trump canceled plans to strike Iran. Brent futures fell 1.3% to $89.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was 1.4% lower at $86.48. On a weekly basis, Brent declined 4.2%, while WTI dropped 4.4%. Reports suggesting progress towards a potential US-Iran peace agreement, which could be signed later this week, along with expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening fully, have improved global risk appetite. Brent crude has eased to around $81.4 per barrel, while the rupee strengthened to around ₹94.3 against the US dollar, offering relief on inflation and external sector concerns.
