The Indian stock market is expected to open on a flat-to-weak note on Monday, with GIFT Nifty trading at 24,027 around 8 am, down 24 points, or 0.1 percent, signalling continued pressure on the Nifty 50 index. According to Moneycontrol, Indian equities face mounting challenges amid sharp losses across Asian markets, Brent crude near $96, and elevated US Treasury yields. The domestic market benchmarks have already shown significant weakness, with Indian benchmarks Nifty and Sensex falling 0.5% and 0.4% respectively over the last two sessions, as global woes overpowered upbeat economic growth data. The S&N BSE Sensex declined 12.99 points or 0.02% to 76,944.28 while the Nifty 50 index lost 24.60 points or 0.10% to 24,055.80 on Tuesday, with continued institutional buying at home providing some cushion against the global headwinds. On a weekly basis, the Nifty 50 ended 1.15% lower, while the Sensex was down by 750 points, with the Auto index losing the most, shedding over 3.8%, whereas the Oil and Gas index outperformed, rallying 1.30%.
The ₹30,000 crore NSE IPO is expected to catalyse a switch of money from the secondary market to the primary market, creating significant pressure on Indian stock indices, according to Mint. Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, said the Indian markets are expected to witness profit-booking at higher levels, and the Nifty 50 may not touch the 25,000 level in June 2026 as investors' interest has shifted towards the NSE IPO. People remember that BSE has surged more than 7 times since its listing in 2017, and investors are expecting the NSE IPO to replicate BSE IPO performance, if not a better performance than the BSE IPO. The Indian stock market is expected to remain an ideal 'sell-on-rise' market until bidding for the NSE IPO ends, with the NSE IPO expected to catalyse a switch of money from the secondary market to the primary market.
Brent crude futures climbed 0.92% to $95.52 a barrel on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate rising 0.89% to $91.02 a barrel in early trade, as reported by Moneycontrol. Both contracts had surged more than $4 on Tuesday as hopes faded for a quick easing of tensions in the Middle East. Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said after the fresh strikes by the US on Iran, tension has escalated in the Middle East and hence we are expecting a rise in the crude oil prices and Breant Crude may touch $100 per barrel in the near term, if some truce doesn't come from either US or Iran. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said crude oil has become the key near-term risk for Indian equities, with WTI having risen more than 8% over the past two sessions following renewed US-Iran military tensions. The selloff followed a sharp rise in oil prices after renewed military action between the US and Iran raised concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged disruption to energy flows through the region could keep oil prices elevated, sustain inflationary pressures and reinforce expectations of tighter global monetary conditions, weighing on risk assets.
Asian equities fell sharply on Wednesday as the global bond-market selloff and renewed US-Iran fighting weighed on risk appetite, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropping 0.8% in early trade. South Korea's Kospi plunged 3% at the opening, while Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 2.2%, according to Moneycontrol. S&P 500 e-mini futures were broadly flat after US equities extended their decline overnight. The US 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to around 4.80%, as expectations of tighter US monetary policy strengthened. Fed funds futures are pricing in an implied 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the US Federal Reserve's meeting in two weeks, according to Reuters. Rising US bond yields and a strong US dollar are expected to put pressure on the global markets, including Dalal Street, with experts believing tokenisation of US bonds is expected to gain momentum, which may not be good news for Asian markets, including the Indian stock market.
Technically, the short-term market trend still appears weak, but if the market manages to trade above the 24,000/76800 mark, a pullback formation is likely to continue in the near future, according to Kotak Securities. Above 24,000/76800, the market could sustain positive momentum up to the 50 and 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), or around 24,200/77400. The Kotak Securities expert said further upside could push the index to 24,350/77800, while below 23,800/76100, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If the market falls below this level, it could retest the 23,600-23,500/75500-75200 zone. Ponmudi expects the Nifty to retain a cautious-to-weak bias, with 24,150-24,200 acting as immediate resistance, while the 24,000 mark remains crucial support, with a sustained break below it potentially dragging the index towards 23,900-23,800.
