The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open with a muted start on Thursday, as GIFT Nifty May 2026 futures currently traded 42.00 points lower, indicating a subdued opening for the benchmark indices. This represents a significant shift from earlier indicators, with GIFT Nifty previously trading around 23,550 in early trade, up 126 points or 0.54%, which had indicated a firm start. The Sensex had ended 50 points higher at 74,609 and Nifty closed above the 23,400 mark at 23,413 on Wednesday, snapping a four-session losing streak aided by value buying in beaten-down stocks. The Nifty Midcap 100 index gained 0.77% and Smallcap 100 index rose 0.31%, while market breadth remained firmly in favour of advances.
Asian markets traded mixed on Thursday as investors focused on the ongoing high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for clues on the future of US-China ties and global trade. Trump arrived in Beijing Wednesday for the closely watched summit, accompanied by a group of prominent US executives, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, who traveled aboard Air Force One with Trump. The summit is expected to discuss trade, artificial intelligence, and Iran, with the producer price index rising a seasonally adjusted 1.4% for April, marking the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to a new all-time high as traders' enthusiasm for the technology trade overshadowed yet another hotter-than-expected inflation report, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq adding 1.2% to end at 26,402.34. However, as per Investing.com, the AI trade continues overpowering inflation fears, geopolitical risk, and rising yields as traders treat mega-cap technology as the market's primary liquidity shelter. NVIDIA rallied after Jensen Huang made a dramatic last-minute addition to Trump's China delegation, with markets immediately interpreting this as a bullish signal for future AI chip access and export flexibility. Micron and Qualcomm surged as traders chased the broader semiconductor optimism, while Tesla and Boeing also caught tailwinds from hopes that any stabilization between Washington and Beijing could reopen critical commercial and industrial lanes.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, led Trump's Department of Government Efficiency until leaving in the spring of 2025 before the controversial pop-up agency was shuttered in November. Musk has since refocused his energy on Tesla and his other companies, with Tesla operations in China and Musk having visited there previously. Apple CEO Tim Cook, who announced his 15-year reign as Apple head will end on September 1, traveled to China as his tenure winds down, with Apple's market value soaring by more than $3.6 trillion during Cook's era. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang heads to Beijing just months after the company received approval to sell its H200 AI chips to China, with new Commerce Department rules requiring adequate US supply and third-party review before export. Other prominent executives joining the mission include BlackRock Chairman Larry Fink, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, Citi Chairman Jane Fraser, and Meta President Dina Powell McCormick. As per Investing.com, Jensen Huang's dramatic last-minute dash to Alaska to board Air Force One alongside President Donald Trump en route to Beijing felt less like corporate diplomacy and more like the opening scene of a geopolitical blockbuster. Huang understands that the stakes are no longer confined to quarterly earnings. They now involve ecosystem dominance itself, with NVIDIA's Blackwell chips remaining partially trapped behind American export restrictions.
Oil prices steadied after recent sharp swings, with Brent crude trading near $105.76 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude hovering around $101.14 a barrel in early trade. As per Moneycontrol, crude prices remain significantly above pre-war levels due to ongoing concerns over the Iran conflict and potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The Indian rupee had hit a fresh record low of 95.80 against the US dollar in Wednesday's trade, adding to inflation worries and pressure on the currency. Foreign institutional investors continued to remain net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹4,703 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors absorbed part of the selling pressure with purchases worth ₹5,869 crore. So far in 2026, FIIs have sold shares worth ₹2.61 lakh crore, while DIIs have bought equities worth ₹3.26 lakh crore. As per Investing.com, crude prices eased slightly ahead of the summit after several strong sessions higher, but energy traders understand that the market is not simply trading barrels anymore. It is trading political duration, diplomatic patience, and the probability of containment.
Despite broader economic headwinds, strong earnings from India Inc. are offering a bright spot even as rising oil prices, a weakening rupee and global tensions test the broader economic outlook, as reported by Fortune India. According to Ponmudi R from Enrich Money, Indian markets are expected to trade with a cautious undertone despite intermittent optimism around US-Iran negotiations. As per Moneycontrol, Nifty remains range-bound with support near 23,300 and resistance around 23,500-23,600, while a move above 24,000 would be needed to improve sentiment. In another major development, India banned sugar exports with immediate effect until September 30, 2026, or until further orders, as the government attempts to rein in domestic prices amid concerns over weaker sugarcane yields and tightening supplies. The global investment advisory firm noted that while headline valuations have corrected from earlier extremes, pockets of the broader market continue to trade at elevated levels relative to earnings visibility. As per Investing.com, the broader tape underneath the surface was far less healthy than the index levels suggest, with real economy stocks sagging and cyclicals looking heavy.
