Indian banks are experiencing significant margin compression as credit card profits shrink due to changing customer behavior, but recent developments suggest improvement ahead. According to The Economic Times, customers now use cards more for payments than borrowing, reducing interest income and impacting major lenders like HDFC Bank and SBI Cards. However, Kotak AMC's Chief Investment Officer Harsha Upadhyaya expects private bank earnings to improve over the next few quarters as FCNR inflows ease funding concerns. He believes the sector is better placed after FCNR inflows addressed funding challenges, while a stable interest-rate environment could further support profitability. Upadhyaya noted that over the next couple of quarters, you should see that happening in terms of earnings growth recovery for private banks.
India Inc. delivered its strongest sales and profit growth in over two years during Q1FY27, but underlying margin pressures are raising concerns about the sustainability of the earnings recovery. According to PL Capital's analysis, companies in their coverage universe reported 15.5% sales growth and 17% net profit growth in the June quarter, marking the highest performance since Q4FY24. However, Ebitda growth was weaker at 9.6%, falling below the 10.1-11% average of the previous eight quarters, while overall Ebitda margins fell 148 basis points. The margin compression was primarily attributed to supply-chain disruptions and higher crude prices affecting multiple sectors.
The margin compression was primarily attributed to supply-chain disruptions and higher crude prices affecting multiple sectors. As reported by PL Capital, the impact was most pronounced in auto, cement, consumer and travel segments. The brokerage expects further pressure ahead as companies begin using higher-cost raw materials in Q2/Q3, while also flagging concerns about weak monsoons, repeated price hikes in essential goods, and higher global commodity prices. Brent crude averaged $83 per barrel in July 2026 before climbing above $90 per barrel in August amid renewed US-Iran tensions, with prices reaching $93.82 per barrel on Thursday. However, recent developments suggest these headwinds may be easing.
Input costs remain elevated across multiple sectors, with aluminium up 36.1% year-on-year, copper up 40.1% year-on-year, and domestic petcoke up 31.4% year-on-year. According to JM Financial Institutional Securities, these cost pressures point to likely margin compression across multiple sectors in H1FY27. Lokesh Manik from Vallum Capital described the margin pressure as "bifurcated," noting that commodity consumers face real pressure while pricing-power categories like cement and FMCG are better positioned to pass on costs. The margin concerns are already impacting earnings expectations, with Nifty EPS growth expected to accelerate to 17.7% in FY27 from just 1.6% in FY26.
Despite near-term challenges, analysts maintain confidence in the broader earnings recovery, with recent banking sector developments providing additional optimism. Shrikant Chouhan from Kotak Securities expects the earnings recovery to shift from margin-led expansion to volume-driven growth, noting that decent Q1FY27 results provide confidence for a strong FY27. Upadhyaya from Kotak AMC believes the overall earnings growth situation for private banks from here on should be lot better than what it was for the last 18-24 months. While companies may see temporary pressure on net interest margins as fresh funds cannot be deployed immediately, the outlook remains favourable as credit growth stays healthy. However, Nuvama Institutional Equities warns that growth could moderate in H2FY27 as the GST rate cut boost fades and the base turns increasingly adverse.
