The Indian stock market is positioned for a gap-up opening on Thursday following significant developments in global oil markets. According to reports from NDTV Profit, GIFT Nifty traded at 23,815.5 levels at 11:12 pm, up nearly 0.6%, indicating strong momentum ahead of the trading session. This positive opening follows Wednesday's market recovery where NSE Nifty closed 0.17% higher at 23,659 and BSE Sensex gained 0.16% to end at 75,318.39, reversing morning losses that saw both indices fall as much as 0.9% during the session. As per Goodreturns, domestic equities bounced back sharply on Wednesday after an early sell-off, with the Nifty recovering nearly 250 points from the day's low and ending above the 23,659 mark. The recovery was aided by some cooling in crude oil prices, though the rupee remained under pressure.
The market optimism stems from significant developments in oil markets, with global benchmark Brent crude trading 8% lower at intraday lows and West Texas Intermediate easing by 0.82% to trade at $107.77 per barrel. As reported by NDTV Profit, the surge came after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, with Trump adding that "we'll see what happens" with Iran, adding that a deal will be made or "we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen." A spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed that Iran-US truce talks are still underway via Pakistani mediators. The recovery was further supported by some cooling in crude oil prices, providing additional relief to market sentiment.
According to ET Now reports, Wednesday's long bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts confirms strong accumulation on dips, setting a higher floor for Thursday's trade. As per Choice Broking's Sachin Gupta, the index formed a bullish candlestick pattern after recovering sharply from lower levels and filling the opening gap-down, indicating buying strength emerging at lower levels. From a technical perspective, immediate support is placed in the 23,350–23,400 zone while resistance is observed in the 23,900–23,950 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.64, indicating gradual improvement in momentum, while India VIX declined by 1.26% to close at 18.44, indicating slight easing in market volatility. Bajaj Broking notes that the Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, characterised by a lower high and lower low but a close near the day's peak, suggesting a strong pullback after a weak opening and reinforcing the importance of support levels around 23,200-23,000. The brokerage highlighted that this was the third rebound in the past six sessions from the same support region, demonstrating sustained buying interest at lower levels. HDFC Securities' Nagaraj Shetti noted that Nifty has successfully established a well-defined consolidation band within the 23,800-23,200 levels and expects a decisive breakout of 23,800 levels to confirm further upside. However, The Economic Times reports that overall sentiment remains weak, and this weakness may continue in the short term as long as the index stays below 23,800, with a decisive move above 23,800 could trigger a strong rally, while a fall below 23,400 may induce panic in the market.
The market faces additional pressure from the rupee depreciating 16 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 96.86 against the US dollar on Wednesday, marking the ninth consecutive session of decline as elevated global crude prices amid the West Asia crisis stoked inflation worries. According to The Economic Times, Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth ₹1,597 crore on Wednesday, while DIIs were net sellers at ₹1,968 crore, adding to the market's cautious sentiment. As per Goodreturns, FIIs turned net sellers after three consecutive buying sessions, while the rise in domestic G-Sec yields to six-week highs could delay the lending rate relief that markets were anticipating. Analysts say markets are likely to remain cautious in the near term, amid an unfavourable macro backdrop marked by continued weakness in the rupee, elevated Brent crude prices near $111/bbl, and high US bond yields, all of which are tightening financial conditions and weighing on sentiment.
Bank Nifty also witnessed a sharp intraday recovery and formed a bullish candle, indicating that the index continues to attract buying near critical support levels. According to Bajaj Broking Research, the banking index is expected to consolidate within the 52,700-54,700 range in the near term. Sustaining above the 52,700-52,400 support zone could pave the way for a pullback toward 54,000 and 54,700. The brokerage noted that index need to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Key support is placed at 52,700-52,400 levels being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49,955-57,456). Overall, technical indicators suggest that Indian equity markets may remain range-bound on Thursday, with 23,800-23,900 on the Nifty and 54,400-54,700 on Bank Nifty emerging as critical breakout zones. Until these resistance levels are decisively crossed, traders are likely to maintain a cautious approach despite evidence of strong buying support at lower levels.
