According to JM Financial's latest expectations for the August 2026 rebalance, Adani Green Energy, Groww, and Laurus Labs have emerged as the biggest potential beneficiaries of the upcoming MSCI India Standard Index review. The brokerage expects Adani Green Energy and Groww to be included as fresh additions, while Laurus Labs is positioned as a high-probability migration candidate from the MSCI India Small Cap Index to the Standard Index. JM Financial estimates the August review could see up to 12 inclusions and three exclusions, driving approximately $2.3 billion of net passive inflows into Indian equities. Ather Energy has also emerged as a medium-probability contender, contingent on further improvement in its free-float-adjusted market capitalisation during the observation period. Adani Energy Solutions has also been identified as a high-probability inclusion candidate, adding to the Adani group's strong representation in the upcoming review.
JM Financial's analysis reveals significant passive inflow potential across the three key stocks. Adani Green Energy is projected to receive approximately $773 million (around ₹6,700 crore) in passive flows, equivalent to roughly 46 million shares and representing about 16 times its average daily trading volume. Groww leads all candidates with estimated passive flows of $821 million (around ₹7,000 crore), with the brokerage estimating roughly 378 million shares could be absorbed by MSCI-linked trackers, equivalent to around 10 times the stock's average daily volume. Adani Energy Solutions is expected to see $342 million (around ₹2,900 crore) in passive flows, while Ather Energy is projected to receive $244 million if included. Laurus Labs is expected to see $554 million (around ₹4,800 crore) in passive flows if it migrates from Small Cap to Standard Index, with around 34 million shares to be bought by benchmark-tracking funds, implying nearly 12 times its average daily volume. Biocon is identified as a strong migration candidate, with $285 million in estimated passive inflows if it moves from Small Cap to Standard Index, while Coforge falls in the medium-probability category for migration and is estimated to receive $567 million if included.
According to JM Financial's analysis, Astral faces the highest probability of exclusion among the stocks under review. The brokerage expects passive outflows of around $138 million (around ₹1,200 crore) from Astral, while SBI Cards and Payment Services is classified as a medium-probability removal with potential outflows exceeding $146 million. Balkrishna Industries could also face a low-probability exit from the index, with passive outflows of around $167 million if removed. However, JM Financial notes that Balkrishna's exclusion remains a borderline case, with the exclusion of SBI Cards being a more likely scenario. Lenskart Solutions and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) shares have low-probability of inclusion in the MSCI India Standard Index, with Lenskart Solutions estimated to see inflows worth $176 million and SAIL estimated to see inflows worth $170 million if included.
JM Financial identifies Laurus Labs and Biocon as high-probability candidates that could migrate to the MSCI India Standard Index from Small Cap Index in the August review. Coforge is classified as a medium-probability candidate, while Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Uno Minda are considered low-probability candidates for migration. Their migration prospects will depend on the sustained improvement in their free-float-adjusted market capitalisation. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals is estimated to receive $330 million in passive inflows if it migrates, while Uno Minda is projected to see $206 million in passive flows. The brokerage also flagged Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Coforge as potential inclusion candidates if their share prices rise by roughly 10% and 6%, respectively, before MSCI's cut-off period later this month. The final composition will depend on MSCI's price cut-off date, which can fall on any of the last ten trading sessions of July, meaning the list of additions and deletions could still change before the official announcement.
The index changes are scheduled to be announced on August 12, 2026, after market hours, with changes taking effect from August 31, 2026. JM Financial's analysis suggests that high-probability inclusion and exclusion candidates could drive net passive inflows into India of about $2.3 billion. India currently has around 165 constituents in the MSCI India Standard Index with a total market capitalisation of approximately $3.2 trillion. The brokerage notes that Lenskart Solutions and SAIL have low-probability of inclusion in the MSCI India Standard Index, with their inclusion prospects dependent on sustained improvement in free-float-adjusted market capitalisation. The estimated passive inflows for these candidates stand at $176 million for Lenskart Solutions and $170 million for SAIL if included in the index.
