The Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections next year will pit the ruling Congress party against the BJP in a critical test of incumbency. According to reports from Business Standard, the Congress currently holds 40 of the 68 Assembly seats after the 2022 elections, while the BJP secured 25 seats. The state's political landscape has been shaped by recent developments including the disqualification of nine Congress MLAs who voted for BJP's Rajya Sabha candidate in February 2024, and subsequent bypoll losses that returned the Congress to its original strength of 40 seats.
The Congress government is grappling with an acute financial crisis that has forced unprecedented austerity measures. As reported by Business Standard, the state had to shrink its Budget by more than ₹3,500 crore for the 2026-27 financial year, marking the first time in history such a contraction has occurred. The government attributed this to the Centre's withdrawal of the revenue-deficit grant (RDG) and warned of potential losses of up to ₹8,000 crore annually in the future. Despite the financial constraints, the Budget still announced a ₹1,500 monthly grant for women from low-income families.
Within the Congress party, Deputy Chief Minister Mukesh Agnihotri has emerged as the biggest rival to Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, repeatedly calling for government reforms. According to Business Standard, Agnihotri has previously accused bureaucrats of gaming the system and charged the government with poor performance. The party faces additional challenges as it has lost all four Lok Sabha seats from the state, reflecting broader electoral weaknesses despite maintaining Assembly control.
The BJP's leadership includes Union Health Minister J P Nadda, who has extensive experience in both state and central politics, and Opposition leader Jairam Thakur. As reported by Business Standard, the party's current crop of leaders all worked with Narendra Modi during his tenure as state party chief from 1995 to 1998. Recent urban local body elections showed the BJP with a slight advantage, though their performance in Kangra district, considered the gateway to power, was suboptimal.
Recent municipal corporation elections in Mandi, Dharamsala, Solan and Palampur revealed the Congress won only Palampur among the four contested seats, reflecting poor MLA performance. According to Business Standard, the two parties have begun quiet strategic planning around the theme of 'incumbency and its enemies' as they prepare for the upcoming Assembly elections. The state's political landscape remains dominated by the two major parties with little room for independents or new political formations.
