The Indian rupee surged 67 paise to close at 95.18 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday (June 12, 2026), marking a significant recovery from Thursday's close of ₹95.85. According to PTI, the currency opened at 95.40 and moved in a range of 94.95 to 95.53 before settling at 95.18 against the greenback. The currency climbed to a one-week high of 94.9550 during the session before settling at the final level. This represents a substantial recovery from Thursday's close, showing the rupee's resilience amid volatile market conditions and providing a positive start to Friday's trading session. The currency's early strength reflects the weaker US dollar and upbeat sentiment at Dalal Street, as per forex traders. As per Choice Broking's Aamir Makda, the rupee opened stronger on Friday, fuelled by a sharp retreat in global crude oil prices. This relief comes in the wake of statements from US President Donald Trump indicating an imminent deal with Iran and the cancellation of planned military strikes.
Brent crude oil prices fell sharply by 4.25% to $86.54 per barrel in futures trade, providing significant relief to the rupee, according to The Hindu. However, The Economic Times reports that Brent crude plunged to $85.80 per barrel, its lowest in three months, after US President Trump said a peace agreement could be signed as early as this weekend. The spike in crude oil prices, driven by West Asia war escalations, had created additional pressure on the domestic currency as India's energy import dependency makes it particularly vulnerable to global oil price movements. Reports of a possible peace deal between Washington and Tehran pushed oil prices deeper into the red, easing concerns over India's import bill and external balances. The sharp drop in oil prices prompted traders to trim long dollar positions built up during the recent bout of geopolitical stress, while improving risk appetite across emerging-market currencies. According to Choice Broking's Aamir Makda, the sharp retreat in global crude oil prices provides significant relief to the rupee, though risks to Red Sea shipping routes could quickly reverse this trend. The currency's recovery reflects the weaker dollar index, which was trading at 99.65, down 0.20%, providing additional support to the rupee's early gains.
Domestic equity markets provided significant support to the rupee's performance, with the BSE Sensex soaring 1,695.40 points to settle at 75,527.95 and NSE Nifty50 climbing 461.30 points to 23,622.90, as reported by Business Standard. The positive sentiment in equity markets helped offset some of the currency's volatility and provided broader market confidence. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,987.09 crore on a net basis on Thursday, according to exchange data, highlighting the ongoing foreign investor caution in the market. The currency's recovery reflects the weaker dollar index, which was trading at 99.65, down 0.20%, providing additional support to the rupee's early gains. As per Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities, "The Indian rupee clawed back Thursday's losses, buoyed by improving market sentiment as global crude prices eased and the dollar softened on hopes of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough."
US President Donald Trump said a deal to end the war with Iran is nearly complete and is expected to be signed over the weekend in Europe, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. This announcement has provided significant momentum to the rupee's recovery, with the currency hitting a high of 95.08 during Friday's trading session. The positive sentiment in equity markets, with Wall Street's three major indexes posting their biggest daily gains since April 8 overnight on hopes for a Middle East peace deal, has further supported the rupee's performance. The escalation in violence though deepens doubts about the prospects for a deal to end the war that started on February 28 and has sparked the most severe oil supply disruption in history. However, recent developments show Trump's indication of an imminent deal with Iran and the cancellation of planned military strikes have provided substantial relief to market sentiment. If confirmed, the deal would mark the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet to end the three-month-old war.
"The rupee rose as oil prices fell to $88.58 levels after three months. The rupee has hovered between 95 and 95.80 in the past few days, moving with the prices of oil," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, as reported by The Hindu. For Monday (June 8, 2026), we expect the rupee to remain in the range of 94.75 to 95.75. The one-month premiums were slightly higher at 2.95% while the one-year premiums were at 2.85%, he added. The Reserve Bank of India has also announced a series of measures aimed at attracting dollar inflows, which have helped stabilise the currency after it hit all-time lows recently. Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the measures to provide some room for appreciation as flows begin to materialize and expects the rupee to move towards 93.0-93.5 levels in the months ahead. Despite the strong daily gains, the move was not enough to protect the currency from posting its first weekly decline, after rising for the last three weeks, as per The Economic Times.
