Large currency speculators have reversed their position on the Euro, turning net short in the futures market according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The non-commercial futures contracts of Euro futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net short position of 16,227 contracts in the data reported through July 07, 2026. This represents a significant shift from the previous week's position of 1,099 net contracts, marking the third consecutive week of declining speculative sentiment toward the Euro. The gross non-commercial USD long across the eight major IMM currency futures nevertheless continued to climb, reaching a fresh 10-year high above USD 40 billion despite the weaker-than-expected June payrolls report.
The shift represents a significant weekly decline in speculative sentiment toward the Euro. According to the CFTC data, the net positions fell by 17,326 contracts on a weekly basis, indicating a substantial reduction in bullish positioning among large speculators and hedge funds. This represents a notable change from previous weeks' positioning in the Euro futures market, with the current week's decline being the second week where bets fell by more than -17,000 contracts. The Euro positions have now only seen two bearish positions out of the past 70 weeks, making this current bearish territory particularly significant for the currency. The main positioning shifts were EUR selling (USD 2.5 billion equivalent) and JPY buying (USD 2.4 billion equivalent), with the latter driven by the post-payroll decline in USDJPY towards 160.50.
The latest COT data reveals a bearish strength score of 23.2% for the Euro, indicating that speculators are currently positioned bearish on the currency. In contrast, the US Dollar Index maintains a bullish strength score of 79.9%, reflecting continued positive sentiment among large speculators. Despite the solid amount of sterling buying, the overall dollar long continued to increase, supported by continued selling of the Canadian and Australian dollars. The New Zealand Dollar has reached an all-time record low with a bearish strength score of 0.0%, while the Japanese Yen shows bearish sentiment at 16.6% despite a weekly position increase of 31,314 contracts. The British Pound maintains bearish-extreme sentiment at 7.2% with a net position of -87,903 contracts.
Despite the bearish speculative positioning, the Euro has maintained relative stability in forex markets, with this week's close around 1.1445 against the US Dollar. This represents a slight decline from the 1.15 support level that has prevailed for roughly a year, with 1.1950 resistance on the upside. The currency has experienced a sharp deterioration over the past 17 weeks, falling by a total of -121,371 contracts since March 10th, 2026. The recent weakness follows a period when the Euro started 2026 with extremely bullish positions that were routinely above +100,000 net contracts.
