Bitcoin has recovered to trade near $63,200, up about 0.8% over 24 hours, according to crypto.news data, after briefly dipping below $60,000 overnight. The token fell as low as $59,227 before buyers stepped back in, and was trading around $61,000, down about 1.3% on the day. The bounce came off a level traders had been watching closely, with Bitcoin having been sliding toward $60,000 all week as a record run of ETF outflows and Strategy's first bitcoin sale since 2022 removed buyers that had supported the price. The break below the round number overnight did not turn into a deeper breakdown, with the token recovering more than $1,500 off the low. However, crypto is lagging a tech rebound as AI stocks bounced higher overnight, with the sector missing out on the broader market recovery.
The market now faces two crucial tests that could determine Bitcoin's next direction. Traders want stronger futures participation before treating the move as lasting, while they are also waiting for U.S. inflation reports on June 10 and June 11. According to Trading Economics, market consensus expects annual CPI to rise to 4.2% in May from 3.8% in April, with its own model pointing to 4.0%. Reuters' economist poll expects annual core inflation to reach 2.9%. Producer prices will follow on June 11, with Trading Economics listing a 6.4% consensus estimate for annual PPI, up from 6.0%, while its model projects 6.8%. Higher readings could support Treasury yields and reduce demand for risk assets, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward support levels. CoinDesk reports that a hotter-than-forecast figure across several sectors raises the probability of a break below $60,000, while a downside surprise could trigger a relief rally given Bitcoin's oversold conditions on key indicators.
Bitcoin's technical picture shows mixed signals with the relative strength index standing near 28.08, slightly above its moving average of 27.52. According to crypto.news, an oversold RSI does not confirm a market bottom, as Bitcoin needs to reclaim resistance and form higher lows before the structure improves. The Bollinger midpoint at $70,369 remains the larger recovery target. Ash Crypto noted Bitcoin fell 14% last week after leaving an ascending channel, comparing the structure with the 2022 bear market and focusing on the weekly 200 moving average. "If the 200 WMA holds, $59,100 could be the cycle bottom," he said, while adding that "if BTC loses it, the next stop could be $50,000 or lower."
The downturn is unfolding at what should have been a triumphant moment for the crypto industry, as the Trump administration has helped crypto secure many of the victories the industry spent nearly a decade pursuing: a sympathetic president, friendlier regulators, institutional acceptance and a legislative framework that increasingly treats digital assets as a permanent part of the financial system. However, rather than unleashing a new wave of demand, those milestones have coincided with one of Bitcoin's deepest retreats in years. Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird, explained that "AI displaced it as the hot investment trend. For the longest time, crypto was this hot investment that Silicon Valley and the institutions were all obsessed with — and AI displaced it." The broader backdrop is becoming less favourable for the sector as money that once flowed almost automatically into crypto is being dispersed across a wider set of speculative assets, while artificial intelligence pulls focus as the newest technological commodity.
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin's collapse has been stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that crushed rate cut expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 172,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, far above expectations of 85,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Revised data also added 93,000 jobs to the previous two months, reinforcing the view that labor conditions remain resilient despite slowing growth elsewhere. Following the jobs report, Polymarket assigned a 52% probability to a Fed rate increase before year-end, while CME FedWatch showed a 42.7% chance that rates will be higher by December. The selloff that drove the dip started outside crypto, with Friday's nonfarm payrolls report coming in solid, and rather than cheering the strength, markets repriced the Federal Reserve outlook hard. Swaps now fully price a rate increase by the end of 2026, a reversal from the cuts expected under newly confirmed chair Kevin Warsh. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 12 basis points to 4.16%, the dollar rose, and risk assets fell.
