XRP has achieved a significant technical milestone, breaking above $1.16 for the first meaningful bullish breakout since early May, rallying more than 8% in five weeks as the broader cryptocurrency market flipped back into risk-on mode. However, the price has since stalled below $1.15, creating a disconnect between the futures market's bullish positioning and spot price performance. According to AMBCrypto, rising Futures Open Interest raises both breakout hopes and liquidation risks, with the current price action reflecting this tension between institutional positioning and retail demand.
XRP wallet activity has shifted decisively toward withdrawals, with over the past week showing greater withdrawals than deposits across major platforms. As reported by AMBCrypto, the total number of wallets declined by roughly 13,026, with Coinbase accounting for the largest shift at -8,900, followed by Binance at -2,626 and Crypto.com at -1,500. This trend indicates investors increasingly prefer self-custody over centralized exchanges, with Binance's balance standing at 2.6 billion XRP and declining steadily from above 3.1 billion. The exchange reserves reduction represents shrinking immediate supply of sellers, though the 90-day Spot Taker CVD has returned to neutral after briefly being buyer dominant in May, suggesting aggressive buyers haven't regained control yet.
While whale accumulation supports the rally, institutional participation shows concerning trends with mixed signals from recent ETF data. Bitwise's spot XRP ETF pulled in $2.49 million in net inflows on Monday, July 20th, representing the strongest single-day performance among issuers. However, the latest advance follows nine consecutive weeks of net inflows into XRP investment products, totaling about $17.2 million, though the pace has slowed with recent weekly figures falling to roughly $12 million, according to latest reports. This suggests institutional demand remains positive but is no longer accelerating, creating a divergence between technical breakout and institutional support that raises questions about the sustainability of the current rally.
While spot activity declines, derivatives markets show contrasting trends with XRP Open Interest increased 5.9% to 423.8 million on Binance, pushing the estimated leverage ratio up to 0.162, its highest reading in recent weeks, according to CryptoOnchain analysis. Funding rates remained close to neutral and fell 29.9% from the previous week, though they still sit 172.5% above their monthly average and 271.7% above their quarterly baseline. As AMBCrypto reports, leveraged traders increasingly became the dominant force behind XRP's price discovery as spot inflows and outflows collapsed, with derivatives sustaining positioning without introducing fresh capital into the market. The recent retail exit doesn't appear as a fluke but could signal that spot interest is fading, making XRP's upside look more like a short-term rotation than the start of a broader structural trend.
The current accumulation pattern by large holders while small holders exit positions has historically been a bullish indicator for XRP, with support clustered around $1.12 to $1.13 where recent lows have attracted buyers, and a stronger floor near $1.05 if selling pressure increases. On the upside, immediate resistance stands between $1.16 and $1.18, followed by $1.32, with a breakout above that level potentially exposing the next resistance near $1.46. However, spot demand remains subdued despite shrinking exchange supply, with transfers bound for exchanges dropping to roughly 140 XRP after major spikes earlier this year. As AMBCrypto notes, until buying pressure strengthens, shrinking exchange supply alone is unlikely to sustain XRP's recovery, with the bullish case calling for XRP to reclaim and hold above $1.18 on a daily close while the bearish prediction emerges if XRP closes below $1.12 on rising volume.
