XRP is trading near $1.09 and defending the $1.00-$1.05 support zone that has held for weeks, according to latest market data. The token has edged from $1.0890 to $1.0900 in early Tuesday trading, with volume reaching 688,000 XRP during a 23:44 UTC breakout attempt, about 120% above the session average. However, earlier selling took XRP to a session low near $1.0742 after volume rose to 80.2 million, about 83% above the 24-hour average. The near-term chart remains weak with lower highs at $1.1133, $1.0993 and $1.0932 showing sellers are still capping recovery attempts, leaving the market compressed between support and resistance levels.
XRP is trading near $1.09 and forming a bullish cup and handle pattern that could drive a 16% move to $1.38, according to latest technical analysis. The pattern has formed between June 22 and July 4, with the handle taking shape now, pointing to a potential breakout if key resistance levels are cleared. The cup and handle formation represents a rounded base followed by a small dip, a pattern that often leads to significant price movements. Selling volume has faded since July 6, a sign that the pullback is losing steam rather than building momentum, providing technical support for the bullish outlook. However, until XRP can clear near-term resistance around $1.088-$1.091 and then the $1.20-$1.25 area, trading is likely to remain a support-defense setup rather than a sustained breakout.
XRP's Binance Scarcity Index has climbed to 0.77, its highest reading in more than two years, according to CryptoQuant analyst ArabxChain. The index tracks how scarce XRP has become on Binance compared to earlier periods, with Binance XRP reserves dropping roughly 20% since November 2024 from around 3.27 billion tokens to 2.6 billion. Exchange reserve data confirms this trend, with reserves sliding from about 2.8 billion in May to 2.6 billion in early July, the same window in which the scarcity index broke out. A sharp dip and rebound of roughly 350 million XRP in February and March likely reflected internal wallet transfers rather than organic flows. The rising scarcity index suggests fewer coins are available for sale, which typically translates into weaker potential selling pressure, though shrinking supply alone does not lift prices without corresponding demand.
Analysts are tracking long-term falling wedge and ascending channel structures that remain intact as long as XRP holds above the $1.00-$1.05 support zone. Several chartists have identified upside targets ranging from $2.20 to prior all-time highs near $3.65 if XRP can break its longer-term downtrend. More aggressive Fibonacci projections point to $4.10, $7.60 and $11.80, though those targets require a confirmed breakout that has not yet occurred. The nearest resistance stands at $1.19, representing the 0.618 Fibonacci level and a technically stubborn barrier about 9% above current levels. A daily close above $1.19 would confirm the breakout and project a roughly 16% run toward $1.38, while support sits at $1.08. However, a daily close below $1.08 breaks the pattern and opens a slide toward $1.00. The XRP-Bitcoin correlation sits at 0.84 over the past 30 days, where 1.0 is perfect lockstep, meaning XRP's fate remains tied to Bitcoin's performance.
XRP spot ETFs recorded their ninth consecutive week of inflows, adding $17.19 million despite wider weakness across crypto funds, according to crypto.news data. This stands out because Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows during the same period, creating a significant divergence that could set XRP apart from other altcoins. The demand picture aligns with earlier fund data showing Bitwise XRP products in the U.S. and Europe topped $200 million in year-to-date inflows, while XRP funds had also posted strong monthly inflows in May. ETF demand does not guarantee a price rally but shows that regulated buyers continue adding XRP exposure while the spot token remains below major resistance. The gap between fund demand and weak price action keeps $1.20 important for traders, as a close above this level would help buyers regain control. Until XRP clears near-term resistance, the market remains a support-defense trade with long-term breakout targets still unconfirmed.
